With one month to go, Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of Donald Trump in the presidential race, as per recent polling data.
What Happened: Recent surveys indicate that Harris is leading Trump by a margin of two to five points, with less than five weeks remaining until the election.
The latest Emerson poll reveals Harris leading with 50% against Trump’s 48%. The Morning Consult’s weekly poll also shows Harris ahead by five points, 51% to 46%. Similar results were seen in a Susquehanna poll and an Economist/YouGov poll released this week, with Harris leading by five and three points respectively.
But despite Harris lead, her advantage has slightly diminished over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, as per FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average. RealClearPolitics' latest polling average shows Harris leading Trump by 2.2 points.
According to a Cook Political Report survey, Harris is leading Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election. However, the NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll indicates that Harris’ lead among Latinos is dwindling.
Pre-debate surveys suggested that Harris' polling surge seemed to have reached a plateau. Although most post-debate surveys indicate that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, it was not enough to significantly impact the race between the two candidates.
Also Read: Harris Vs Trump: New Polls Show Tight Race In Battleground States
Also a poll conducted by American University (AU) and the Benenson Strategy Group revealed that 51% of women trust Harris to tackle inflation and the high cost of gas and groceries. This is in contrast to the 37% who trust her GOP rival, Trump, on these issues.
The survey also showed that Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, are trusted more on immigration, another key issue with the election just over a month away. Harris’s favorability among independent women has increased by 23 points since last year, with 51% finding her favorable.
Furthermore, the poll emphasized that the economy and inflation are the most important issues for women in the 2024 White House race, with 64% of respondents indicating this. Harris currently holds a 3.7-point lead over Trump nationally, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's polling index.
Why It Matters: The close race between Harris and Trump underscores the deeply divided political landscape in the United States.
The shrinking lead of Harris, particularly among Latinos, could be a cause for concern for her campaign. The outcome of the election could hinge on the seven battleground states, where the race is currently too close to call.
The impact of the debates on the polling numbers also highlights the importance of these events in shaping public opinion. Also Harris’ lead over Trump and her increased favorability among independent women could potentially influence the election results.
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This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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