The race to the White House has become too close for comfort to either side of the aisle, and this was confirmed by the results of a new poll published on Monday.
The Match-Up: Democratic nominee Kamala Harris led her Republican rival Donald Trump by merely a point in the Harvard CAPS Harris poll conducted between Oct. 11-13. The survey was conducted online with a nationwide sample of 3,145 registered voters. The sample also comprised 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters. The margin of error is +/- 1.8 points.
The proportion of respondents who said they didn’t know or were unsure amounted to 5.9%.
The tables have turned from September when Trump led Harris by a point.
When those who said they didn’t know or were unsure were asked to make a choice between Harris and Trump, the former’s lead increased to two points versus the deadlock that prevailed in September.
About four in five registered voters said they would definitely vote in the general election. Party-wise breakup show 85% and 84% of the Democrats and Republicans saying they would definitely vote. However, only 72% of the independents said the same.
Fifty percent of the voters said they would vote on the election day, while 45% said they would vote early and 5% did not plan to vote. Among those who voted early, 51% said they voted for Harris, and a more modest 43% said they chose Trump.
When the ballot was expanded to include independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party’s Jill Stein, Harris led by Trump by 47% to 46%.
Break down of the voters based on demographics showed Harris and Trump maintaining their lead with their respective strongholds. Trump was ahead with men, whites, rural voters and those with high school degrees to those with less than four-year college degrees. On the other hand, Harris has solid support among women, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, urban voters and those with four-year college degrees or more.
Harris led Trump among likely voters by a 49%-47% margin.
Trump Ahead In Battleground States: As opposed to the sentiment that prevailed nationwide, Trump wielded the clout in key battleground states, the poll found. Among registered voters in the battleground states, Trump led Harris by a 48%-46% margin.
Among likely voters, the two candidates had a two-point difference, with Trump snagging 49% of the voters and Harris 47%.
Cat-on-the-Wall: With only three weeks to go for the election, 14% of the voters said they were still weighing the choices, while 86% said they had made up their mind. The proportion of undecided voters was high among independents at 25% and among battleground state voters at 16%.
This assumes importance, given the very slim margin between the candidates.
Majority Pessimistic: Only three in ten voters said the country was on the right track, and the assessment about the economy is relatively better, with one in three saying the economy was on the right track. The proportion of voters saying the economy was strong today improved slightly from September. Now two in five say the economy was strong.
Did You Know?
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