Economist Justin Wolfers has publicly disputed claims made by Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance regarding inflation and grocery prices. Wolfers challenged Vance’s assertion that former President Donald Trump would reduce grocery costs.
What Happened: On Monday, Vance stated on X that Trump would lower grocery prices and secure the southern border, contrasting this with Vice President Kamala Harris, whom he claimed would continue high prices and border chaos. In response, Wolfers countered that economists anticipate Trump’s plans would lead to a significant inflation increase.
Wolfers emphasized his point by stating, “Couldn’t find a single economist who believes Trump will lower grocery prices,” and challenged Vance to name any economist who supports his claim.
Wolfers further highlighted a study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which predicts that Trump’s policies could raise U.S. inflation by over 4 percentage points by 2026.
The research outlined scenarios involving the deportation of unauthorized workers, increased tariffs, and potential erosion of Federal Reserve independence, all contributing to the inflation forecast.
Why It Matters: The debate between Wolfers and Vance comes amid broader discussions about the potential economic impact of a Trump presidency.
In August, Wolfers expressed skepticism about Trump’s economic team, calling it the “least impressive” in history and criticizing Trump’s approach to policy-making. Wolfers warned that Trump’s policies might be made up on the fly, lacking serious economic backing.
Additionally, a recent survey conducted in October suggested that Trump’s economic policies could drive inflation and federal deficits higher than those proposed by Harris. The survey indicated that 68% of economists expect prices to rise more rapidly under Trump than Harris.
Furthermore, Singapore’s state-owned investment firm Temasek warned that a potential Trump re-election could slow global growth, affecting U.S. companies and financial markets. The firm highlighted that Trump’s tariffs might create uncertainty and negatively impact emerging markets.
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