US Stocks Likely To Open Lower Ahead Of March Inflation Release: Expert Highlights 'Fairly Weak Returns' After 5%+ Gains In S&P 500

U.S. stock futures were lower on Thursday after staging a stellar recovery on Wednesday after a tariff pause. Futures of major benchmark indices were down in premarket.

President Donald Trump attributed the tariff pause to negotiation efforts by roughly 75 non-retaliating nations in a Truth Social post.

Amid investor anxiety regarding trade barrier impacts on the economy, the investors will keep an eye on the upcoming Consumer Price Index data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized last week that there is “no rush” to lower rates.

Economists’ median forecast anticipates a 2.6% annual increase in the overall CPI for March 2025, a moderation from February’s 2.8% and the smallest inflation figure since October 2024. Monthly price growth is projected to be a mere 0.1%.

The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to ease slightly to a 3.0% year-over-year rate, compared to February’s 3.1%. However, the monthly core CPI is predicted to rise to 0.3%, an increase from the previous month’s 0.2% pace.

The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.29% and the two-year bond was at 3.85%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 79.8% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its May meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Dow Jones	-1.73%
S&P 500	-2.23%
Nasdaq 100	-2.55%
Russell 2000	-2.92%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were lower in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was down 3.04% to $531.92, while the QQQ declined 2.53% to $454.20, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session:

Fueled by President Trump’s unexpected 90-day tariff pause for non-retaliating nations, U.S. stocks soared on Wednesday, with consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services sectors leading the charge.

The S&P 500 recorded its largest single-day gain since 2008. Notable individual movers included Apple Inc. AAPL up over 15%, Nvidia Corp. NVDA surging around 19%, and Tesla Inc. TSLA leaping more than 22%, although a subsequent Truth Social post from Trump threatened a 125% tariff hike on Chinese goods.

Additionally, U.S. mortgage application volumes saw a significant 20% weekly increase in early April.

The Dow Jones index surged 2,963 points or 7.87% to 40,608.45, whereas the S&P 500 index skyrocketed 9.52% to 5,456.90. Nasdaq Composite jumped to end 12.16% higher at 17,124.97, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, leaped 8.66% to 1,913.16.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	12.16%	17,124.97
S&P 500	9.52%	5,456.90
Dow Jones	7.87%	40,608.45
Russell 2000	8.66%	1,913.16

Insights From Analysts:

Charlie Bilello from Creative Planning said in an X post that the S&P 500 logged its third-biggest one-day gain since 1950 on Wednesday.

After logging the biggest one-day gains in the past, the “Stocks moved substantially higher over the next 1, 3, 5 years every time,” he added.

The S&P 500 was up 9.5% today, the 3rd biggest 1-day gain since 1950.

What has happened in the past following the biggest 1-day gains?

Stocks moved substantially higher over the next 1, 3, 5 years every time.https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ pic.twitter.com/jmUhOp6KOu
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 9, 2025

Ryan Detrick from Carson Research cited historical data and concluded that after the S&P 500 index gains over 5% in one day, the returns on the next day and in the next week are “fairly weak.”

On average, after such a gain, the S&P 500 index falls by 0.7% the next day and by 1.7% in the next five days. However, the yearly gains after such a day are usually 26.9%.

Wow, this is interesting.

23 times the S&P has gained at least 5% in one day.

The next day and a week out = fairly weak returns.

But a year later? Up 26.9% on avg and higher more than 91% of the time. Don't shoot the messenger here. pic.twitter.com/aHMuRqIwmK
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) April 10, 2025

Detrick also highlighted that 93.96% of all the stocks on the NYSE advanced on Wednesday, which was the most since May 10, 2010. “Yeah, that might classify as a buying thrust,” he said.

93.96% of all the stocks on the NYSE advanced today.

That is the most since 94.57% on 5/10/10. In other words, a couple days after the Flash Crash.

Yeah, that might classify as a buying thrust.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) April 10, 2025

Bridgewater Associates’ billionaire founder, Ray Dalio, in an X post, praised Trump’s move to shift from escalating tensions to negotiation, calling it “a much better way,” and then pressed the President to finalize a trade agreement with China and reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP.

Dalio proposed a China deal featuring “appreciating the RMB against the dollar,” achievable through “Chinese selling dollar assets while also easing their fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate their demand.”

This is a great time for all involved to reconsider their approaches! There are better and worse ways of handling our problems with unsustainable debt and imbalances, and President Trump's decision to step back from a worse way and negotiate how to deal with these imbalances is…
— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) April 10, 2025

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on Thursday:

The initial jobless claims data for the week ended April 5 and the headline and core consumer price index data for March will be announced by 8:30 a.m. ET.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will testify to the Senate, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Also, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will both speak at noon.

March’s monthly U.S. federal budget data will be out by 2:00 p.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus:

Carmax Inc. KMX fell 2.57% in premarket on Thursday as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of 65 cents per share on revenue of $5.96 billion.

Lovesac Co. LOVE was 0.19% lower as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of $1.87 per share on revenue of $233.95 million before the opening bell.

Northern Technologies International Corporation NTIC jumped 12.83% as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of 6 cents per share on revenue of $20.20 million.

Amtech Systems Inc. ASYS dropped 7.98% as it cut its revenue forecast for the second quarter from $21 million-$23 million to $15 million-$16 million.

Richardson Electronics Ltd. RELL advanced 3.98% after posting better-than-expected earnings for its third quarter, while sales missed estimates.

Constellation Brands Inc. STZ tumbled 3.75% after the Corona beer maker forecasted its annual profit below estimates due to the tariff hit.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY slid 2.59% after flagging higher prices for oil and gas production in the first quarter.

ReShape Lifesciences Inc. RSLS surges 76.65% after entering an exclusive U.S. distribution agreement with Motion Informatics to import and distribute neuromuscular rehabilitation devices.

NextPlat Corp. NXPL climbed 20.24% after its subsidiary, Global Telesat Communications, secured a deal from a central UK Government department to provide Iridium Push-To-Talk devices and recurring airtime services.

Damon Inc. DMN plunged 49.59% as it faces Nasdaq delisting after its stock plummeted 99.5% in a year to $0.01, triggering a delisting notice for trading below $0.10 for ten days straight.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 3.50% to hover around $60.17 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar advanced 0.73% to hover around $3,105.70 per ounce. Its fresh record high stood at $3,168.04 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.61% at the 102.2750 level.

Asian markets were mostly higher on Wednesday except for India's S&P BSE Sensex index. China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, and South Korea's Kospi index advanced. European markets were also higher in early trade.

Read Next: