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- Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that this “worst-case scenario” of sweeping 20% tariffs risks triggering a potential recession.
- "I'd brace for impact," Zandi says.
- Feel unsure about the market’s next move? Copy trade alerts from Matt Maley—a Wall Street veteran who consistently finds profits in volatile markets. Claim your 7-day free trial now.
White House aides have reportedly drafted a proposal to impose sweeping tariffs of about 20% on "at least most imports" as part of President Donald Trump's transformative trade strategy.
The Details: According to Washington Post, three people familiar with the matter said White House aides drafted the 20% tariff proposal ahead of Trump's planned announcement on Wednesday, which he is calling "Liberation Day."
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that this "worst-case scenario" of sweeping 20% tariffs risks triggering a potential recession and unemployment exceeding 7% if trading partners retaliate aggressively, per the Post. Stocks would drop by 25% and more than 5 million jobs would be lost by early 2027, said Zandi.
"I'd brace for impact," he said.
Read Next: Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Autos: What It Means For Your Next Car Purchase
White House officials caution that multiple tariff strategies remain under consideration, with no definitive plan finalized. Trump reemphasized his intention to implement “reciprocal” tariffs while speaking with reporters on Monday evening and suggested some countries could be excluded from the new import taxes.
A selective, reciprocal approach would likely prove less economically disruptive than a blanket tariff system.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted at targeting a subset of nations he referred to as the “Dirty 15,” referring to the 15% of nations that account for the bulk of U.S. trading volume and impose hefty tariffs and other barriers on U.S. goods.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett similarly cited 10 to 15 countries that are responsible for America's $1 trillion trade deficit, but did not name specific nations.
It remains unclear if tariffs will be reciprocal or sweeping or which countries could be targeted in Wednesday's announcements. The Post said that a White House spokesperson declined to comment on Tuesday.
Markets React: Futures on major U.S. indices fell as Wall Street waits for an official tariff announcement.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, tracking the S&P 500, was down 0.43% at $557.00 and the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ, tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, was down 0.33% at $467.35 in Tuesday's premarket trading.
Gold, which is tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, climbed to a record high of around $3,130 per ounce on Tuesday.
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