ETF Outlook for Friday, December 6, 2013 (SPY, TBT, GLD, EEM)

ETF Outlook for Friday, December 6, 2013

SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY

The much-anticipated monthly jobs number comes out today before the opening bell and is expected to be a major market mover. The SPY has fallen for five consecutive sessions heading into today and is now trading 1.2 percent below the all-time high set last week.

The ETF has moved from overbought to near oversold levels very quickly even though the loss has been minimal over the losing streak. Considering the pullback has been so swallow, it reaffirms the bullish case that stocks will likely move higher into 2014.

Related: #PreMarket Primer: Friday, December, 6: US GDP Could Be A Facade

The initial level of support to watch on SPY is prices support at $177.50, which was a previous resistance level. The next level to keep an eye on is the 50-day moving average, currently at $175.

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF TBT

Also poised to move on the jobs number are interest rates. A better than expected number will likely send rates higher and bonds lower as the odds of a tapering will increase.

TBT closed a few pennies from a two-month closing high yesterday and any selling in bonds will lead to a major breakout for TBT. With the 10-year bond already yielding the highest rate in three months it will not be a surprise to see TBT join in the breakout. Assuming a breakout occurs the next level of resistance is at $82/share.

SPDR Gold ETF GLD

Monday saw GLD close at the lowest level in five months and that was followed by a two-day rally in the precious metal ETF. Yesterday the selling resumed when GLD gapped down on the open and was able to salvage the day with a loss of 1.4 percent.

Investors will be watching the jobs number closely as a good print will lead to the belief of an upcoming taper that will lead to commodities, especially precious metals, to move lower. Support on GLD is the low of Tuesday - $117.23/share.

iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index ETF EEM

Even thought investor would assume the emerging markets are disconnected from the U.S. jobs number and Fed policy, that belief is not accurate. One of the hardest hit asset classes during the “taper sell-offs” the last few months has been the emerging market stocks.

EEM fell by 0.6 percent yesterday and closed at a fresh three-month low. More taper talk will hit the emerging markets hard tomorrow and with EEM sitting near important support the action in the ETF will be key to the end of the year action. The support level to watch is $40.70.