ETF Outlook For Thursday, May 1, 2014 (DIA, FRAK, PGAL, DBA)

ETF Outlook for Thursday, May 1, 2014

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA

The Dow closed at an all-time high yesterday and DIA was not far behind, closing two cents below the record close set the last trading day of 2013. Leading the index of 30 stocks yesterday was 3M Company MMM, Goldman Sachs Group GS and Exxon Mobil XOM.

DIA is unchanged on the year and the breakout that is occurring is a major bullish factor for investors that are long stocks. The next two days will either confirm or refute the current breakout and could be setting the stage for how stocks perform this summer.

Market Vectors Unconventional Oil and Gas ETF FRAK

A gain of 11 percent through the first four months of the year has FRAK as one of the best performing niche ETFs in the market. The ETF has a large exposure to energy companies that focus on extracting oil and natural gas in unconventional ways such as fracking and oil sands.

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High oil and natural gas prices along with a rebounding economy have been factors that have helped push the price of FRAK higher in the last four months. A small pullback could be in the cards for a few days, but the long-term trend remains bullish.

Global X FTSE Portugal 20 ETF PGAL

The Portuguese ETF has been flying under the radar and had another strong day yesterday with a gain of 1.6 percent. The volume was a meager 5,700 shares, but the chart cannot be ignored.

Since it began trading last November the ETF is up 22 percent and has remained in an impressive uptrend the entire time. The top holding, making up 20 percent of the portfolio, Energias de Portugal hit a new all-time high yesterday and has been a major catalyst behind the move in the ETF.

PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF DBA

The ETF is up 21 percent this year as the price of the agricultural commodities continues to move higher despite a pullback of 0.3 percent yesterday. The ETF remains well below the high of 2008, however the rally since the beginning of February cannot be ignored.

The ETF is composed of 11 different commodity contracts with the largest weightings in coffee, corn, live cattle, soybeans, sugar and cocoa. Several of the commodities have been on the move due to inclement weather and supply issues. Expect volatility in the ETF in the coming months.