Golar LNG (NASDAQ:GLNG) Stock

Golar LNG

Golar LNG Ltd is a midstream LNG company that operates in the transportation, regasification, liquefaction, and trading of LNG. The segment in which the group operates includes Shipping, FLNG (Floating Liquefaction Natural Gas vessels), and Corporate and other. It generates maximum revenue from the FLNG segment.

GLNG

Every year, analysts discuss the stocks and sectors they favor for the coming year, often providing price targets for where major indexes might land by year-end. I believe both of these practices are futile. The market is dynamic and ever-changing; the environment can shift on a dime, so don’t get attached to a one-year playbook. Focusing on quarterly trends is a better approach.

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Golar LNG Limited (GLNG) acquires minority stakes in FLNG Hilli, representing 8% of capacity, for $90.2M. Expected to add $0.5bn to Adjusted EBITDA backlog. 

Golar LNG Expands FLNG Hilli Stake, Eyes Long-Term Argentina Deal

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Golar LNG Ltd

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Golar LNG  Executes Agreements To Sell Golar Arctic Carrier For $24M

Golar LNG Limited ("Golar") has entered into a share purchase agreement for the sale of all its shares in Avenir LNG Limited ("Avenir LNG" or "Avenir") to Stolt-Nielsen Gas Ltd. for a total consideration of approximately USD 40 million (the "Transaction"). The Transaction is expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2025, subject to fulfilment of the conditions under the share purchase agreement.
Golar will remain a 25% shareholder and debt provider to Higas Srl, the HIGAS LNG storage terminal in Sardinia, ("HIGAS") that was spun off from Avenir LNG in October 2024. As of end October 2024, the book value of HIGAS was USD 40.5 million (on a 100% basis), of which $24.7m was shareholder loans and $15.8m shareholders equity.

Golar LNG To Sell Avenir LNG Shares To Stolt-Nielsen Gas For $40M; Completion Expected Q1 2025

Every year, analysts discuss the stocks and sectors they favor for the coming year, often providing price targets for where major indexes might land by year-end. I believe both of these practices are futile. The market is dynamic and ever-changing; the environment can shift on a dime, so don&rsquo;t get attached to a one-year playbook. Focusing on quarterly trends is a better approach.
I have a few items I&rsquo;m monitoring for Q1, listed in no particular order. These are not recommendations, just observations.
Economic Landscape
As of the end of December, the FOMC updated its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), making key adjustments:
<ul>
<li>Core PCE projections for 2025 were revised upward from 2.2% to 2.5%.</li>
<li>Real GDP growth was adjusted from 2.0% to 2.1%.</li>
<li>The number of anticipated rate cuts for 2025 was reduced by one&nbsp;25-basis-point cut, down from four cuts projected in September to 2 cuts for the year.</li>
</ul>
The 10-year Treasury yield has moved higher since the first rate cut, alongside the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)&mdash;and rightly so. Economic data remains robust, with Real GDP continuing to exceed 2.5%, the Unemployment Rate holding steady at around 4.2%, and the Labor Participation Rate stabilizing at approximately 62.5% throughout the year.
Labor Market
For Q1, continued stability in initial claims is expected due to the high frequency of the data. In contrast, monthly BLS data&mdash;and even more delayed revisions&mdash;will likely have less market influence. Instead, the market will focus on high-frequency data and dismiss monthly payroll data, especially prior-month revisions, given the optimistic business landscape following Donald Trump&rsquo;s election.
The Philly Fed provides a valuable report that models preliminary non-farm employment change data (reflected in monthly Non-Farm Payrolls) and uses comprehensive datasets from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to produce an Early Benchmark indicator. This indicator reflects potential overestimation or underestimation of non-farm payrolls for each state. Unfortunately, the Early Benchmark indicator shows that total Non-Farm Payrolls have been overestimated. This aligns with the aggressive downward revision reported this year of 818,000 jobs from April 2023 through March 2024. The final revision will be released in February, alongside the January Labor Report.
The market may not feel significant labor pressure until the Unemployment Rate reaches 4.5&ndash;4.6%. While this may be a tall order for Q1 based on current trends preliminary data, it becomes more plausible by Q2 of 2025 after revisions and census data updates.
&nbsp;
<img alt="" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQECOejOeiUL7A/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0/1736112731197?e=1741824000&amp;v=beta&amp;t=4_w4otHVeV-GAa_88kF8M7-5gG-TUgFpBLLeoUeOLE0" style="height:730px; width:650px" />
Source:&nbsp;The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Liquefied Natural Gas
Just like in 2024, I am optimistic about the longer-term vision on liquefied natural gas. For those who may not know, liquified natural gas is natural gas that is cooled at -260 degrees Fahrenheit, which requires special equipment to complete the process and to also transport liquified natural gas in the form of exports to other countries. The reason LNG has gained enthusiasm over the last several years is the result of diminishing natural gas flows from Russia to Europe due to the Russia/Ukraine war, and also its ability to scale to make it more efficient to transport natural gas, in which the United States has an abundance of and in some cases we flare off excess (burn off) supplies of natural gas because it does not make it economical to capture and transport through pipelines.
With the change in Presidential administrations, the expectation is for expedited permitting and favorable regulations for the energy market as a whole, but for LNG, there might be a special focus around this industry because of its geopolitical implications. It is one of the bigger economic levers the U.S. may use over the coming months and years. Right now, LNG is still relatively expensive, and that is the result of a lack of infrastructure and tanker availability as LNG requires special tankers to transport the commodity. Infrastructure plays around LNG may be in the spotlight for Q1.
&nbsp;
<img alt="" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQHUiUiFwVgRRg/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1736112829392?e=1741824000&amp;v=beta&amp;t=M56YgYUkik565DCaPp3BmrpeggP7kGhc-y4wbxXeGfk" style="height:352px; width:650px" />
Source: EIA
&nbsp;
<img alt="" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQHrL08LCQAx0g/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1736112853858?e=1741824000&amp;v=beta&amp;t=hBjAMRyYap-N5BPHIvlqt7SYWXC-ZuT5kqLU8W5IDhM" style="height:408px; width:650px" />
Source: EIA
Several companies with LNG exposure (Not a recommendation):
<ul>
<li>Cheniere Energy (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/lng#NYSE">LNG</a>): Cheniere Energy is the leading U.S. producer and exporter of LNG, operating major liquefaction facilities at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Its robust infrastructure and long-term contracts position it as a critical player in the global LNG supply chain.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies SE (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tte#NYSE">TTE</a>): TotalEnergies is a global energy giant with significant investments in LNG production, trading, and infrastructure, including projects like the Arctic LNG venture. Its diversified portfolio highlights its commitment to LNG as a cleaner energy alternative.</li>
<li>Golar LNG Limited (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/glng#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>): Golar LNG is a pioneer in Floating LNG (FLNG) technology and operates LNG carriers, enabling efficient liquefaction, storage, and transportation. The company&#39;s innovative solutions offer flexibility and cost savings in the LNG value chain.</li>
<li>Chevron (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/cvx#NYSE">CVX</a>): Chevron has extensive LNG operations, particularly in Australia with the Gorgon and Wheatstone projects, which supply LNG to global markets. Its LNG ventures align with its strategy to meet rising global energy demands with lower carbon solutions.</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/xom#NYSE">XOM</a>): ExxonMobil is a major player in LNG with projects in Qatar, Papua New Guinea, and Mozambique, contributing to its role as a key supplier of cleaner-burning fuel. The company&rsquo;s LNG operations are integral to its global energy portfolio and sustainability efforts.</li>
<li>Baker Hughes (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/bkr#NYSE">BKR</a>): Baker Hughes provides critical equipment and services for LNG projects, including turbo-machinery and gas technology for liquefaction and transportation. Its expertise supports the development and operation of LNG facilities worldwide.</li>
<li>Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/hon#NASDAQ">HON</a>) Honeywell provides advanced technologies and equipment essential for LNG facilities, including control systems and automation solutions. In 2024, Honeywell announced its acquisition of Air Products&#39; LNG technology and equipment division for $1.81 billion, enhancing its LNG pretreatment portfolio.</li>
<li>KBR, Inc. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/kbr#NYSE">KBR</a>) KBR offers engineering, procurement, and construction services, with significant experience in LNG projects, including liquefaction and regasification facilities. KBR is recognized as a leading company in the LNG infrastructure market.</li>
</ul>
The infrastructure plays, the bottom-up players may see tailwinds in Q1, like Baker Hughes, KBR, and Honeywell (even though LNG exposure may only be 5% of total revenue mix).
Copper
Pressure on key industrial metals like copper and silver persists as we begin the year, driven by the lackluster performance of China&#39;s expansion story throughout 2024. However, rhetoric from China continues to intensify, and if actions align with these statements, the &quot;China trade&quot; could gain traction by Q2 this year.
Copper was a notable trade last year, but prices have since pulled back as China has shifted to becoming a temporary net exporter of finished copper. This transition is driven by the ongoing expansion of smelting operations, even though copper ore remains in a structural supply deficit. The market anticipates the reopening of key mining operations in the second half of the year. While this potential supply increase may already be priced in, a price ceiling could persist if China does not significantly ramp up domestic consumption.
China accounts for approximately 55% of global refined copper consumption, so any bullish narrative around copper must be supported by increased domestic demand. Copper price action and global inventory levels should be closely monitored, as they are likely to serve as early indicators of progress in the China stimulus narrative.
It is important to note that while refined copper supply is currently in surplus, copper ore remains in a structural supply deficit. The physical market will need to work through the oversupply of refined copper before structural price support can emerge.
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<img alt="" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQF3cJV-h4PyVQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1736112883295?e=1741824000&amp;v=beta&amp;t=86FsfwTsgVCqfKuhAZXBhGmr1yIMzitmksa0MVc0LFY" style="height:385px; width:650px" />
Source: ING Research
I expect the China narrative to gain traction by the end of Q1, with stronger momentum building into Q2. While price advances may be short-lived, a risk/reward trade could materialize for those patient enough to await the move, with resistance near the 2024 highs around $4.70. The 200-week SMA and 100-week SMA have converged, forming a potential support area. In the event of a structural break lower, $3.70 may act as a key support level.
The MACD is currently bearish but may begin to flatten if the $4.00 level holds. A bullish crossover of the 12 EMA above the 26 EMA on the weekly chart could serve as a bullish signal for the market.
Remember, there are other China-exposed equity trades that may relate to this early economic signal. Companies typically do not preannounce a ramp-up in commodity orders&mdash;they simply act when the timing is appropriate.
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<img alt="" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQHBOX0_y6s7xA/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1736112908231?e=1741824000&amp;v=beta&amp;t=uDQQeBbnYztzGFUuTni0gZBpMw1jl0ht4YzuNp6xr4Y" style="height:312px; width:650px" />
Silver
The silver market saw impressive activity in 2024 as it was leveraged to complement the strong move in gold and to gain exposure to the A.I. trade. Silver is used in approximately 90% of all electronics in one form or another, so the increasing demand for high-powered A.I. infrastructure products, such as GPUs and server technology, could serve as a significant tailwind for the metal. However, consumer electronics demand has been lagging since the post-COVID era, creating some slack in demand for this precious and industrial metal.
Many analysts are optimistic about a refresh cycle for consumer electronics, including cellphones and laptops. If this refresh narrative materializes in the second half of the year, silver could be a major beneficiary. That said, silver is also considered an inflationary hedge. The China growth narrative will play a critical role in silver&rsquo;s ability to sustain a bullish trend. However, if slack persists in Asia-Pacific markets and there is a marginal slowdown in the U.S., silver could face downward pricing pressure.
Fundamentally, the market remains in a physical deficit when considering ETF holdings. Modest silver production growth is expected in 2025, alongside industrial demand growth projected in the high single digits. A potential price decline would likely result from a global economic slowdown. Given these dynamics, coupled with pent-up optimism around China&rsquo;s expansion and expectations for sticky Q1 U.S. inflation data&mdash;especially in energy commodities like natural gas&mdash;silver may still have room to run.
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<img alt="" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQHghEvpFBkSWQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1736112934595?e=1741824000&amp;v=beta&amp;t=SSBE1v6OzOnUeBoNNEkfcqt9xYQzdmZPUuHOD5mg068" style="height:312px; width:650px" />
Traders should continue to rely on technical analysis, with the weekly MACD serving as a primary guide. Key bullish and bearish signals can be identified through MACD crosses: a 12 EMA crossing above the 26 EMA indicates a bullish trend, while a 12 EMA crossing below the 26 EMA signals a bearish trend.
Support for silver futures (/SI) currently lies at $24.50-$25, with resistance at $32. Any break above $32, accompanied by volume exceeding the 10-week average by 20%, should be taken seriously as a potential breakout signal. A weakening U.S. Dollar, driven by weaker domestic economic data alongside sticky inflation, may also act as a tailwind for silver in Q1. However, at present, the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) does not appear to be weakening anytime soon.
Crude Oil
It should come as no surprise that petroleum markets experienced lackluster performance during the last quarter of 2024. Global demand has softened, with slack evident in the Asian markets, particularly in India and China, as well as a lack of industrial activity in Germany. This has prompted leading industry agencies, including OPEC and the IEA, to revise their petroleum demand outlooks for 2024 and 2025.
OPEC+ continues to delay adding production to the market due to concerns over weak pricing support. In 2025, it should be expected that any sustainable price advances in oil will be met with increased supply, limiting the potential for sustained bullish trends unless there are logistical disruptions caused by geopolitical risks.
That being said, Q1&mdash;particularly January&mdash;may present the best window of opportunity for bulls. The first three weeks of the year are likely to see a meaningful drop in refiner utilization rates due to scheduled maintenance. Additionally, harsh winter weather, such as &quot;Arctic blasts,&quot; could disrupt production in regions like the Bakken, affecting both extraction and pipeline operations.
The China stimulus narrative could also act as a bullish catalyst for energy markets in the first quarter. Furthermore, the early months of the Trump administration may bring headlines about favorable policies aimed at incentivizing exploration and infrastructure spending. However, it is important to note that a &quot;drill, baby, drill&quot; approach is not inherently bullish for prices. Instead, it could constrain additional investment as energy companies prioritize profitability over production.
It is also expected that China will continue to expand its oil and natural gas import relationship with Russia, potentially reducing its demand for global supplies.
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<img alt="" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQF1xzbzF5sNxg/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1736112960557?e=1741824000&amp;v=beta&amp;t=ZLJ--czC8WI0r782-THhCZCjWmI6_X3_N6ZXVmAtiM8" style="height:312px; width:650px" />
Given the current fundamental backdrop, WTI crude oil is likely to trade within a range of $67-$75. Any geopolitical risk involving Iran, including greater enforcement of economic sanctions, could add a $2-$4 premium to prices. For the year, any break below $63 may result in crude oil hitting the mid $50 level. The 200-week SMA continues to be a key area of resistance at $80.
Follow me on <a href="https://x.com/KGBULLANDBEAR">X</a>&nbsp;
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Stifel analyst Benjamin Nolan maintains Golar LNG (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $53 to $55.

Price Target

Analyst Ratings

Stifel Maintains Buy on Golar LNG, Raises Price Target to $55

Golar LNG Limited (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>) shares traded lower in the premarket session on Tuesday but recovered from the loss. The company has acquired Seatrium&#8217;s and Black &amp; Veatch&#8217;s minority stakes in the FLNG Hilli, including 5.45% common units, 10.9% <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/12/g42666947/golar-acquires-all-outstanding-minority-interests-in-the-flng-hilli" rel="noreferrer noopener">Series A shares, and 10.9% Series B shares</a>.
The total transaction value is $90.2 million, comprising $59.9 million in equity and $30.3 million as a pro-rata share of the existing FLNG Hilli debt facility.
This acquisition represents approximately 8% of the full FLNG capacity.
Golar&#8217;s increased ownership will take full economic effect starting January 1, 2025.
The FLNG Hilli is contracted to Perenco in Cameroon until July 2026, after which it is planned to relocate to Argentina under a 20-year agreement with Southern Energy, a consortium of leading Argentine natural gas producers.
The Southern Energy contract is contingent on conditions such as obtaining an export license, completing an environmental assessment, and a Final Investment Decision by Southern Energy.
Since commencing operations in 2018, the FLNG Hilli has achieved global-leading uptime, delivering 124 LNG cargoes and offloading over 8.5 million tons of LNG.
Additionally, Golar LNG and Seatrium have resolved outstanding items, including a $7 million payment by Golar to Seatrium for a Hilli Train 3 utilization bonus and historical work on the former Golar Gandria LNGC.
Following these settlements, no further contractual obligations regarding existing assets remain between Golar and Seatrium.
Golar CEO Karl-Fredrik Staubo said, &#8220;Golar is pleased to take full ownership of FLNG&nbsp;Hilli. The increased ownership will give immediate cash flow accretion and is expected to add approximately $0.5bn of Adjusted EBITDA backlog.&#8221;
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Exchange Traded Concepts Trust Range Global LNG Ecosystem Index ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LNGZ#NYSE">LNGZ</a>) and Invesco Oil &amp; Gas Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PXJ#NYSE">PXJ</a>).
Price Action: GLNG shares are up 0.62% at $42.10 premarket at the last check on Tuesday.
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</ul>

Golar LNG Limited ("Golar" or "the Company") is pleased to announce that the company has acquired Seatrium's and Black &amp; Veatch's minority ownership interests in the FLNG Hilli. The acquisitions comprise all third-party interests in the asset, including a total of 5.45% common units, 10.9% Series A shares and 10.9% Series B shares. The transaction is equivalent to ~8% of the full FLNG capacity. The total consideration for the acquisitions is $90.2 million, of which $59.9m is in equity and $30.3 million is a pro-rata share in the existing FLNG Hilli debt facility. The full economic interest of the increased ownership in FLNG Hilli will be effective from 1st of January 2025

Golar LNG Acquires Remaining Minority Interests In FLNG Hilli For $90.2M

As of Dec. 9, 2024, three stocks in the energy sector could be flashing a real warning to investors who value momentum as a key criteria in their trading decisions.
The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock&#8217;s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down. When compared to a stock&#8217;s price action, it can give traders a better sense of how a stock may perform in the short term. An asset is typically considered overbought when the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/rsi">RSI is above 70</a>, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/">Benzinga Pro</a>. 
Here's the latest list of major overbought players in this sector.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Golar LNG Limited (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>)</h3>
<ul>
<li>On Nov. 12, Golar LNG reported quarterly sales of $64.81 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $77.62 million by 16.51%. The company has a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/GLNG">52-week high of $19.94</a>.</li>
<li>RSI Value: 70.46&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>GLNG Price Action: Shares of GLNG gained 0.4% to close at $42.45 on Friday.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">New Fortress Energy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFE#NASDAQ">NFE</a>)</h3>
<ul>
<li>On Nov. 7, New Fortress Energy posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings. &#8220;This has been a strong and steady third quarter for the company as we achieved Adjusted EBITDA of $176 million, matching our guidance of $175 million. This was largely the result of steady volume demand from our terminals and the addition of Fast LNG cargos in our supply portfolio as the liquefier reached nameplate production.&#8221; The company's stock gained around 27% over the past month and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/NFE">has a 52-week high</a> of $7.82.</li>
<li>RSI Value: 75.92</li>
<li>NFE Price Action: Shares of New Fortress Energy gained 3.8% to close at $12.41 on Friday.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Profire Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PFIE#NASDAQ">PFIE</a>)</h3>
<ul>
<li>On Nov. 6, Profire Energy posted in-line quarterly earnings. The company's stock gained around 76% over the past six months and has a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PFIE">52-week high</a> of $1.33.</li>
<li>RSI Value: 84.40</li>
<li>PFIE Price Action: Shares of Profire Energy closed at $2.54 on Friday.</li>
</ul>
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Contracts

Global

INDA

Argentina's YPF Working To Contract LNG Carrier From Golar LNG To Export Gas; YPF CEO To Travel To India In January To Sign Understanding Agreement To Export LNG

Every quarter, I track the 13F filings at the SEC. These are the reports filed by money managers of all stripes that show what the funds owned during the most recent quarter. When you compare the current list to the prior quarter, you come away with a clear picture of what institutions are buying for their customers and themselves.
When I started in the business, it took several days past the deadline to get a copy of the filings. I would go through the current and previous filings with a ruler and a yellow highlighter to track the changes. It was laborious but profitable. Today, the filings are made available instantly, and the portfolios and changes are posted to the internet instantly.
The Thundering Herd of Wall Street and the Instant Experts of the Internet will flock to read the filings of the best-known money managers and investors. Obviously, Warren Buffett gets a lot of attention. So do Carl Icahn and Cathie Wood. Bill Ackman also garners some attention. The number of people who dig deeper to find managers that are doing business away from the spotlights and consistently delivering high returns is small.
The famous investors are famous because they did well over time. However, they now manage billions of dollars, and their opportunity set is limited to large-cap stocks. You can do okay with their stocks, but if you want better than okay, you have to dig deeper.
If you joined the circus of Buffettology and just owned the top 20 holdings of Berkshire Hathaway for the last 10 years, you have earned about half the return of the S&amp;P 500. You did much worse as an Icahn clone investor. A very small portion of Klarman&#8217;s fund is invested in stocks these days as he finds bargains in other asset classes like debt and real estate. The stocks Baupost Fund has purchased have not been big winners for the most part.
If you could make the same derivatives bets Bill Ackman made when he made them, you would have done pretty well. If you just bought the stocks he did, you would have lagged the indexes. If you bought the top 20 stocks held by Donald Smith and Company, you would have crushed the market over the last decade. You would have crushed the market for over 20 years cloning this unknown investment firm.
You would have never owned the most exciting stocks. About half the time, you would have trailed the index in a given calendar year. In the years you outperformed, you outperformed by a massive margin.
This approach is incredibly boring.
Donald Smith and Company focuses on the bottom 10% of the stock market as measured by price-to-book value. They narrow the universe down to the cheapest ones and buy the ones they think have the highest potential for recovery. They have done that for over 40 years with exceptional results. Elections, crashes, melt-ups, and meltdowns have come and gone, and this firm just keeps its head down and buys cheap stocks.
As it turns out, boring is profitable.
Founder Donald Smith passed away in 2019, but his associates have kept the firm going with the same mission. The top 20 holdings contain no tech stocks. They do not even own a single tech stock or uranium miner. Donald Smith and Company owns some insurance companies, energy firms, homebuilders, REITs, and even steel companies.
Using their 13F filings to manage your portfolio or find ideas would have delivered market-beating returns that grew your wealth at a much faster pace than owning an index fund. $10,000 invested in the index with dividends reinvested would have piled up to a total of about $67,300. Shamelessly cloning the Donald Smith and Company portfolio would have given you over $151,000.
Today is the deadline for 13F filings covering holdings on September 30, 2024. The Instant Experts and talking heads will be out discussing what the famous investors have been doing. The key is to focus on what the investors who are still crushing the market are doing. We will talk more about this idea over the next week. For now, here are the top 20 stocks owned by Donald Smith and Company as of the end of the third quarter:

<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Aercap holdings</td>
<td>(Ticker: AER)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Eldorado Gold</td>
<td>(Ticker: EGO)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>M/i &nbsp;Homes</td>
<td>(Ticker: MHO)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jackson Financial</td>
<td>(Ticker: JXN)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Unum</td>
<td>(Ticker: UNM)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Genworth</td>
<td>(Ticker: GNW)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>US Steel</td>
<td>(Ticker: X)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Iamgold</td>
<td>(Ticker: IAG)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Civitas</td>
<td>(Ticker: CIVI)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taylor Morrison Homes</td>
<td>(Ticker: TMHC)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Howard Hughes Corporation</td>
<td>(Ticker: HHH)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Corebridge</td>
<td>(Ticker: CRBG)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Golar LNG</td>
<td>(Ticker: GLNG)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Park Hotles and Resorts</td>
<td>(Ticker: PK)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Equinox Gold</td>
<td>(Ticker: EQX)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Beazer Homes</td>
<td>(Ticker: BZH)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Siriuspoint ltd</td>
<td>(Ticker: SPNT)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Radian Group</td>
<td>(Ticker: RDN)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ternium</td>
<td>(Ticker: TX)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ally Financial</td>
<td>(Ticker: ALLY)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>

Opinion

ALLY

CIVI

SPNT

TMHC

C-Suite Buys of the Week: November 14, 2024

Golar LNG (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>) reported quarterly sales of $64.81 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $77.62 million by 16.51 percent. This is a 3.64 percent decrease over sales of $67.25 million the same period last year.

Earnings

Earnings Misses

Golar LNG Q3 Sales $64.81M Miss $77.62M Estimate

Rumors

Watching Golar LNG; Traders Circulate Unconfirmed Rumor Perenco Said To Be In Talks To Acquire The Company

Golar LNG Limited (the "Company") has today successfully priced USD 300 million in senior unsecured bonds in the Nordic bond market. The bonds will mature in September 2029 and bear interest at 7.75% per annum. Net proceeds from the bond issue will be applied towards capital expenditure, refinancing of debt and general corporate purposes. An application will be made for the bonds to be listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange.

Golar Prices Of $300M Unsecured Bond Issue In The Nordic Bond Market, Will Mature In September 2029

Golar LNG Limited ("Golar") has mandated DNB Markets and Pareto Securities as Global Coordinators and Joint Bookrunners, and Clarksons Securities and Fearnley Securities as Joint Bookrunners, to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing Monday 2 September 2024.
A new USD denominated 5-year senior unsecured fixed rate bond issue may follow, subject to inter alia market conditions.
The net proceeds from the contemplated bond issue are to be applied for capital expenditure and/or refinancing of debt and general corporate purposes.

Offerings

Reported Earlier, Golar LNG Plans Investor Meetings Ahead of Potential 5-Year Bond Issue

Stifel analyst Benjamin Nolan maintains Golar LNG (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $55 to $53.

Stifel Maintains Buy on Golar LNG, Lowers Price Target to $53

Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Robertson maintains Golar LNG (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $43 to $56.

Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy on Golar LNG, Raises Price Target to $56

Golar LNG (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>) reported quarterly sales of $64.689 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $75.016 million by 13.77 percent. This is a 16.56 percent decrease over sales of $77.530 million the same period last year.

Golar LNG Q2 Sales $64.689M Miss $75.016M Estimate

Golar LNG Ltd. (&quot;Golar&quot;), and bp, as Operator of the Greater Tortue-Ahmeyim LNG Project, have executed agreements to implement a commercial reset for FLNG&nbsp;Gimi. The commercial reset agreement simplifies contractual cash flows and settles previous disputes related to payment mechanisms for pre-commercial operations date (&quot;Pre-COD&quot;) contractual cash flows. Golar and bp have agreed an updated schedule of daily payments until the Commercial Operations Date (&quot;COD&quot;). The daily payments have step-up mechanisms based on project milestones up to COD and are secured by long stop dates. Golar will also be entitled to certain lump sum bonus payments subject to achievement of certain project milestones. These Pre-COD cash flows are expected to be deferred on the balance sheet and amortized over the 20-year contract term from COD.
The commercial reset settles all ongoing disputes including the current arbitration process and re-aligns the parties towards reaching COD.
To shorten the time to COD the parties have also agreed to start the commissioning of FLNG&nbsp;Gimi&nbsp;with an LNG cargo prior to the availability of gas from the FPSO.&nbsp;

Golar LNG and BP Agree on Updated Payment Schedule, Settle Disputes for Greater Tortue-Ahmeyim Project

WIIM

ACDC

AESI

ARCH

BANL

BORR

CEIX

CHRD

CLMT

CRGY

CTRA

DINO

FANG

GPRK

LBRT

LTBR

MTDR

PTEN

SDRL

TALO

TRGP

VIST

VNOM

WFRD

WTTR

Shares of oil and gas stocks are trading lower despite Middle East tensions. Weak US economic data may be weighing on demand outlook.

B. Riley Securities analyst Liam Burke maintains Golar LNG (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $35.5 to $44.5.

B. Riley Securities Maintains Buy on Golar LNG, Raises Price Target to $44.5

As of July 12, 2024, two stocks in the energy sector could be flashing a real warning to investors who value momentum as a key criteria in their trading decisions.
The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock&#8217;s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down. When compared to a stock&#8217;s price action, it can give traders a better sense of how a stock may perform in the short term. An asset is typically considered overbought when the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/rsi">RSI is above 70</a>, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/">Benzinga Pro</a>. 
Here's the latest list of major overbought players in this sector.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Greenfire Resources Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GFR#NYSE">GFR</a>)</h3>
<ul>
<li>On July 10, Greenfire Resources announced redemption of $61 million of the company&#8217;s $300 million senior secured notes due 2028. The company's stock gained around 26% over the past month and has a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/GFR">52-week high of $9.90</a>.</li>
<li>RSI Value: 70.99&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>GFR Price Action: Shares of Greenfire Resources gained 1.5% to close at $7.30 on Thursday.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Golar LNG Limited (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNG#NASDAQ">GLNG</a>)</h3>
<ul>
<li>On July 5, Golar LNG entered into definitive agreements with Pan American Energy to deploy a floating liquefied natural gas vessel in Argentina for 20 years. Golar's CEO, Mr. Karl Fredrik Staubo, said, "We are excited to enter a partnership with Pan American Energy, one of the leading energy companies in Latin America." The company's stock gained around 21% over the past month and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/GLNG">has a 52-week high</a> of $34.59.</li>
<li>RSI Value: 81.58</li>
<li>GLNG Price Action: Shares of Golar LNG closed at $34.30 on Thursday.</li>
</ul>
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Short Ideas

Top 2 Energy Stocks That May Fall Off A Cliff This Quarter

Press Releases

Golar announces pricing of USD 300 million unsecured bond issue

Final Investment Decision for MK II 3.5mtpa FLNG

Golar LNG Limited – Q3 2024 results presentation

Interim results for the period ended September 30, 2024

Key information relating to the cash dividend to be paid by Golar LNG Limited (Ticker: GLNG)

Golar Acquires All Outstanding Minority Interests in the FLNG Hilli

FLNG Gimi Received First Gas From the GTA Field

Sale of Shareholding in Avenir LNG Limited

Golar LNG Limited – Q4 2024 results presentation

Sale of LNGC Golar Arctic Marks Golar's Exit From LNG Shipping Segment

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