The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the 12-nation cartel responsible for about 40% of the world's oil production, meets in Vienna today and this could be one of the more eventful meetings for the cartel in quite a while.
Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the group, has pledged to raise production this month regardless of what the rest of OPEC decides to do. Realizing high prices aren't good for demand, the kingdom has promised to raise boost output to at least 9.5 million barrels a day this month.
That could draw the ire of Iran and Venezuela, which have not been shy about favoring high prices. No one knows what OPEC is going to do besides OPEC, but the following ETFs could be in play regardless of OPEC's decision.
1) EGShares Emerging Markets Energy ETF EEO:
The reason why this unheralded energy ETF could move on the OPEC meeting is simple: EEO allocates more than a third of its country weight to Russia, which isn't an OPEC member, but the country is the world's largest oil producer with output of over 10 million barrels per day.
The fact that U.S. demand may wilt as oil prices remain high is of little consequence to Russia because the U.S. isn't a major buyer of Russian crude. Countries such as China and India are home to robust oil demand and those nations are willing to pay for Russian crude. In other words, Russia is just fine with prices where they are.
2) U.S. Oil Fund USO:
So obvious, but when the OPEC meeting breaks and the cartel makes an announcement one way or the other on production, oil futures are going to move and USO should follow suit.
3) U.S. Brent Oil Fund BNO:
The best way for the regular investor to play the spread between Brent crude, the global benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate. That spread reached a record $17.39 a barrel on Tuesday, but BNO could be vulnerable in the near-term to increased OPEC production because the ETF has been a big winner due to lost Libyan output. Then again, most analysts expect the Brent/WTI spread to remain wide for the foreseeable future.
4) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF MES:
OPEC members Kuwait, Qatar and United Arab Emirates account for over 89% of this ETF's weight and while oil names have scant representation in MES, financials account for over 57% of the fund's weight. And it is the oil business that keeps the banks in these countries flush with cash.
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