Unemployment Claims Fall Short Of Expectations, Signaling Tight Job Market; Q1 GDP And Core PCE Revised Higher

The U.S. job market continues to display strength and durability, while both the U.S. economy and intrinsic inflation pressures experienced a greater surge than initially projected in the previous quarter. The number of Americans registering for unemployment benefits in the week ending May 20 rose by 4,000 to 229,000, well below the expected 245,000, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday.

Concurrently, the Bureau of Economic Analysis raised its preliminary estimate of the nation's GDP growth in the preceding quarter from 1.1% to 1.3%.

Key Takeways From Last Week's US Unemployment Claims

• Initial jobless claims came in at 229,000, rising from a revised lower level of 225,000 the prior week, and well below expectations of 245,000.
• The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which eliminates week-to-week variability, remained steady at 231,750, below the expected 258,970.
• Continuing jobless claims for the week ended May 13 fell from 1,799,000 to 1,794,000, below than the forecasted 1,800,000.
• Noteworthy drops in jobless claims were reported in Massachusetts, down by 2,190 for the week, and in Michigan, down by 1,070.
• Notable increases in claims were reported in Texas, up 2,680, and in Connecticut, up 2,498. 

Key Takeaways From Q1 GDP's 2nd Estimate

• The quarterly annualized rate of economic growth for the first quarter of 2023 in the United States has been revised up from 1.1% to 1.3% due to an upward revision in private inventory investment.
• The GDP price index, or deflator, was 3.8%, the same as in the advance reading. 
• The core price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which excludes food and energy, was revised higher last quarter, from an annualized 4.9% to 5%, indicating an upward adjustment in underlying price pressures.

Market Reactions: The U.S. dollar index, which is tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP, strengthened by rising 0.2% after the data prints.  

The S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% an hour before the opening bell on Wall Street. 

Gold, which is tracked by SPDR Gold Trust GLD, plummeted 0.8% to $1,944/oz. 

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