Zuanic & Associates' latest Key States equity report takes us "in the weeds" with state-level data, revealing crucial insights and trends that may impact the industry in the year ahead.
Key Trends: State-Level Data
Despite fundamentals taking a backseat to federal reform news flow for the MSO group, the report highlights some noteworthy patterns.
In the second quarter (2Q), stocks in several states witnessed a more significant delta with "less bad" trends than those showing "still good" performance, indicating potential improvement in sales trends.
“We think this helps characterize 2Q, price deflation is still a factor, but it has not worsened; 2Q typically sees a seasonal bounce (after 1Q seq down), in several states YoY declines are less than in the past,” reads the report.
Although price deflation remains a factor, it has not worsened, and some states are experiencing lesser year-on-year declines.
The report highlights brand market insights, showcasing the fragmented flower market with house brands leading at a 6.5% share. The top 10 brands dominate the vape and edibles sectors with substantial combined shares.
State Highlights
- Michigan stands out with an impressive 39% year-on-year sales growth, outpacing other states. Meanwhile, it may be more advantageous to be a retailer than a grower/processor in some states, but exceptions like Massachusetts suggest otherwise.
- California reports second-quarter 2023 sales of $1.25 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year decline. Wholesale prices have recovered, and despite being among the lowest in the country, the state's average flower retail prices are higher than in some states.
- Florida's second-quarter 2023 sales reach $477 million, displaying a 4% year-on-year growth. The state sees positive growth in medical marijuana patients, driving increased spending.
- Illinois reports second-quarter 2023 sales of $484 million, showing a 1% year-on-year growth. Although out-of-state shoppers impact sales, the overall impact is less than expected. The state's attractive economics and varied product mix contribute to its stable performance.
Are you interested in learning more about state market dynamics? Join us at the upcoming Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference in Chicago on September 27-28. Meet Pablo Zuanic in person and gain valuable insights into the ever-changing landscape of regulations and market trends to invest wisely.
The Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference, the place where deals get done, is returning to Chicago this Sept 27-28 for its 17th edition. Get your tickets today before prices increase and secure a spot at the epicenter of cannabis investment and branding.
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