Trump Leads In New Iowa Poll, Yet National Surveys Differ: Debate Concern?

Former President Donald Trump has dominated most Republican polls ahead of the 2024 election, as he seeks to return to the Oval Office.

A new poll from a crucial state indicates a narrower lead for Trump compared to national surveys.

What Happened: In last week’s national Morning Consult poll of Republican voters, Trump had a lead of 41 points over Ron DeSantis. The lead has consistently been 40 points or more for several weeks, after months of holding a lead of over 30 points.

The first 2024 NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll paints a different picture, with Trump having a 23-point lead.

Here’s a look at the preferred presidential candidate among likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers:

• Donald Trump: 42%
• Ron DeSantis: 19%
• Tim Scott: 9%
• Nikki Haley: 6%
• Mike Pence: 6%
• Chris Christie: 5%
• Vivek Ramaswamy: 4%
• Doug Burgum: 2%
• Will Hurd: 1%

Related Link: Trump's Favor For Vivek Ramaswamy: Will It Stand As He Threatens DeSantis, Second Place Position 

Why It’s Important: The poll results show Trump has a lead of 23 points among Republican voters. The poll was conducted between Aug. 13 and Aug. 17, after Trump was indicted in Georgia over charges related to the 2020 election.

J. Ann Selzer, the pollster in charge of the survey, said this was the largest lead in the poll since the 2000 election, which saw George W. Bush win the Republican nomination and the overall presidency.

“I’ve been doing this for a long time,” said Selzer, who has been conducting this Iowa survey over the last three decades. “We have had candidates who started low and ended up winning.”

Voters in the poll were also asked who they would pick as their second choice, with the following results:

• Ron DeSantis: 20%
• Tim Scott: 15%
• Vivek Ramaswamy: 12%
• Donald Trump: 10%
• Mike Pence: 7%
• Nikki Haley: 5%
• Chris Christie: 5%
• Doug Burgum: 3%
• Will Hurd: 1%

The poll also found that only 40% of those surveyed have their mind made up on who they will be voting for, with 52% saying they could be persuaded to another candidate.

Among Trump supporters, 66% said they had their minds made up, while 34% said they could be persuaded to another candidate.

The poll also found that 65% of Republican voters don’t think Trump has committed serious crimes, despite multiple investigations and indictments. Twenty-six percent believe Trump has committed serious crimes and 9% are not sure.

The Iowa poll from NBC News comes after a recent NY Times/Siena College poll showed Trump with a similar 24-point lead in the state among the Republican candidates.

Ramaswamy, who had risen in other national polls, ranks near the bottom with only 4% of support as a first choice among voters.

The poll results come ahead of a highly anticipated Republican presidential primary debate that will air on Fox Corporation’s FOXFOXA Fox News and stream on Rumble Inc RUM on Wednesday, Aug. 23.

Trump has announced he will skip the debate, which could open the door for another candidate to pick up support in future polls.

Trump previously cited a commanding lead as one of the reasons to potentially skip the debates. Although a 42% backing is impressive, the 23-point lead may not provide as substantial a buffer in pivotal states as Trump might have anticipated.

Read Next: 2024 Election Betting Odds: Biden The Favorite, Ramaswamy And Kennedy Jr Surge Up List 

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