Can Trump Win The GOP Nomination? Here's What Past Primary Election History Shows

Former president Donald Trump has dominated many election polls among Republican voters ahead of the 2024 election.

A leading data analytics writer shared insight into what past elections could mean for Trump’s current odds of winning the GOP nomination for the upcoming presidential election.

What Happened: The latest Morning Consult poll of Republican voters showed Trump with 58% of the vote and a lead of 44 points over the next leading candidate.

National data shows Trump with around 50% of the vote across numerous polls, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.

Data analytics writer G. Elliott Morris, who writes for Walt Disney Co DIS-owned ABC New and FiveThirtyEight, shared data of election primaries from 1972 to 2020 for presidential races of non-incumbents.

“Here are FiveThirtyEight, we are big believers in the predictive power of early election polling — where it is warranted,” Morris wrote.

While Trump has dominated the polls, Morris said there are recent examples, such as the 1992 Democratic race in which Bill Clinton went on to win the primary and general election, but had not announced his candidacy at this stage of the race.

Data compiled by Morris showed only four non-incumbents other than Trump were at 50% or better at the end of August in the year before the presidential election.

Of those four, three won their party’s nomination and one lost.

The highest percent at this stage in the race was also the candidate who didn’t secure the party’s nomination, with the 1980 race seeing Democrat Ted Kennedy having 66% support in August 1979 before winning only 37% the following year.

The most recent example of someone polling at over 50% in the year before the election was Democrat Hillary Clinton who had 55% support in the August preceding the 2016 election and went on to win with 56% of the vote in the primary.

The other two presidential candidates that had more than 50% of support at this stage and went on to win their party nominations were Al Gore (2000) and Bob Dole (1996).

Examples of candidates who had below 50% support at this stage had more mixed results with three winning their party’s nomination and two losing, in the chart Morris showed.

Kennedy took on incumbent Jimmy Carter for the Democratic nomination in the 1980 election. At this stage in the election, he was polling significantly ahead with 66% of the vote compared to 34% for Carter.

Related Link: Trump Mug Shot Goes Viral, Former President Gains On Biden In Polls 

What’s Next: Based on the results of the study, Morris said Trump had anywhere from a 54% to 93% chance of winning the GOP nomination. Morris narrowed the real odds to closer to 66% for Trump to get the GOP nomination.

While this seemed like a shoo-in for the nomination, Morris wrote he would call Trump’s odds as “likely” or “probable” and not to the “certain” or “highly likely” level yet.

Morris said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had around a 13% chance of the GOP nomination and Vivek Ramaswamy had around an 8% chance of the GOP nomination at this stage.

The journalist said there could be some early state upsets in the primary elections in 2024 that could shift the odds and the chances of Trump ultimately securing his party’s nomination.

Read Next: 2024 Election Betting Odds: Biden Gains, DeSantis Drops, Ramaswamy Climbs 

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