Why Gurman Thinks Apple Can Come Out On Top This Holiday Quarter And Reverse Sales Slide

Apple Inc. AAPL could snap a year-over-year revenue declining streak in the December quarter, according to Bloomberg columnist Mark Gurman.

A Holiday Quarter To Cherish? After three straight quarters of revenue drop, Apple could grow its topline in the holiday quarter, thanks to an improved supply chain and favorable comparisons with 2022’s slow shopping season, Gurman said in his latest installment of the weekly Power On newsletter on Sunday.

The current consensus for the December quarter is $123.5 billion as opposed to last holiday season’s revenue of $117.2 billion, he noted.

“Assuming the iPhone maker doesn't hit supply disruptions like it did last fall — or run into serious sales issues in China — the company should have an easy path to clearing the $117.2 billion,” the columnist said.

So-so Product Launches: This year, Gurman said, has been a lighter-than-usual year. Recapping Apple’s year so far, he noted that the company released processor refreshes for the MacBook Pro and Mac mini, and a HomePod speaker without any new features of note. After skipping the usual major March product cycle, the company launched its M2-based 15-inch MacBook Airs, Mac Studios and Mac Pros in June, he said, adding that the reception to these products were mixed.

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The Vision Pro was introduced in June, but it won’t go on sale until early next year and will likely have little impact on the company’s financials for many years after that, Gurman said.

Commenting on last week’s “Wonderlust” launch event, the columnist said the new Apple Watches are similar to the previous year’s versions. Although the watches are powered by a new processor, the performance hasn’t seen a noticeable change, he said. “And though features like a double-tap in-air gesture offer some gee-whiz value, they probably aren't a reason to upgrade,” he added.

High-end iPhones, Supply Chain – The Highlights: The “clear highlight” is the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max, which are significant upgrades with slimmer bezels, better cameras and an A17 Pro chip that will improve the gaming experience, Gurman said. He also noted the titanium design, which “is a vast improvement in durability and weight.” The titanium shift will likely drive sales this fall, he added.

Preorder data suggests strong demand, which could be enough to get Apple over the top this holiday quarter and reverse the sales slide, Gurman said.

The Apple writer said the company is likely getting a big lift from a smoother supply chain, with no signs of manufacturing snags so far. Last year, the company had to halt the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max for a month due to COVID-19 lockdowns at its major supplier in China.

Larger Changes Ahead: “While the product lineup for 2023 will probably let Apple meet financial targets this holiday period, it really just serves as a stopgap for 2024, when larger changes are planned,” Gurman said.

“With so many of these advances not coming for months or longer, Apple just needs to make sure its interim products can keep customers loyal,” he said, adding, “And despite mostly modest updates in 2023, the latest devices will probably do the trick.”

Apple ended Friday’s session down 0.42% at $175.01, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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