Zinger Key Points
- A weekly poll from Morning Consult asks voters who they would pick in hypothetical 2024 election matchups.
- In six of the past seven weeks, Trump ranked ahead of Biden in the weekly poll.
The 2024 presidential election could see voters select between the same two candidates that faced off in the 2020 presidential election. In that election, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump.
National polls of registered voters continue to show a close race for the 2024 election. Here's the latest.
What Happened: President Biden and former President Trump have been the frontrunners for the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, ahead of the 2024 election for many months.
The most recent Republican voter poll from Morning Consult showed Trump with a 55-point lead and 66% support. This tied Trump for the largest lead he has had over the Republican competition since polling began in December.
While Trump held a lead of 50 points or more over his Republican opposition in several consecutive weeks, the former president has been neck and neck in a hypothetical matchup against Biden.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select in a hypothetical matchup of Trump versus Biden.
In this week's poll, Trump received 42% of the vote and Biden received 41% of the vote. Eleven percent of voters selected Someone Else and 5% selected Don't Know.
This marked a drop for Trump, who had 44% in last week's poll. Biden also lost one point, dropping from 42% to 41%. Three weeks ago, the two candidates were tied at 43% support each.
The important Independent voters, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 pick as the following, with last week's results in parentheses:
Joe Biden: 32% (30%)
Donald Trump: 36% (40%)
Someone Else: 21% (21%)
Don't Know: 11% (9%)
Biden gained two percentage points and Trump lost four percentage points among the Independent voters from last week's poll.
The poll found 85% of Republicans selected Trump for the hypothetical 2024 poll, which was down two percentage points from last week's results. The poll also found that 87% of voters who voted for Trump in the 2020 election are backing him again, which was down two percentage points.
In the latest poll, 84% of Democratic voters selected Biden, up from 83% in the previous poll. The poll also found that 80% of voters who backed Biden in the 2020 election are backing him again in the poll, which is down from 82% in previous poll.
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Why It's Important: The latest poll marks three straight weeks of Trump leading Biden and a sixth time leading over the past seven weeks.
Over the past 14 weeks, Biden was tied with Trump five times, ahead of the former president three times and ranked behind the former president six times.
Before the past three months, Biden posted a lead of one to two percentage points in almost all polls dating back to when polling began in December.
A separate Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden among registered voters in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden won six of the seven swing states in the 2020 presidential election, with five of the seven flipping from Democrat to Republican to help secure the win for Biden.
The latest poll results come ahead of several January events that will happen before states begin voting in primary elections.
Biden will travel to the Valley Forge, Pennsylvania area on Saturday, Jan. 6. The location marks the area where George Washington and the Continental Army spent the winter over 250 years ago during the Revolutionary War.
Biden will decry the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol that happened three years ago and is expected to note that the attack was led by supporters of former President Trump in an attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
The president will also travel to Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina, on Monday, Jan. 8. The site was the location of a shooting that left nine people dead in a white supremacist attack in June 2015.
Biden is expected to use the locations and their histories to illustrate the high stakes of the 2024 election and the belief that Trump is a threat to the founding principles of America.
The anniversary of the Jan. 6 events and Trump's role highlighted by Biden comes as several states have fought to remove the former president from ballots for the 2024 election.
Trump will take part in a town hall event on Jan. 10 on Fox Corporation FOXFOXA owned Fox News, choosing to once again skip a Republican primary debate.
Biden posted gains among Democrat voters in the poll and also posted his largest lead in a separate poll of Democrat voters according to Morning Consult. Biden received 81% of support from Democrat voters, versus 2% for Marianne Williamson and 1% for Dean Phillips.
Biden had 73% of support from Democrat voters in the previous month's poll. Biden saw a big jump among both male and female voters, gaining 11 and seven percentage points respectively. Biden also gained 20 percentage points among Democratic voters aged 65 or older.
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