DeSantis Eyeing 2024 Election Exit After Iowa Loss? Former White House Writer Says Yes, But Florida Governor Insists He's 'In This For The Long Haul'

Over a year ago, the battle for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination was expected to be a close race between former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump now has a commanding lead over his Republican competitors ahead of the 2024 election.

What Happened: Once seen as the favorite to win the 2024 Republican nomination for president and win the general presidential election, DeSantis has been falling in polls. The latest Morning Consult poll of national Republican voters shows Trump with a 55-point lead and DeSantis tied for second place with Nikki Haley.

Several Republican candidates have dropped out of the race, leaving a handful of competitors against Trump in a dwindling field that could continue to shrink as states begin completing primary elections and caucuses.

The early Iowa caucus on Jan. 15 could help decide if DeSantis will stay in the race, according to political consultant Douglas MacKinnon.

MacKinnon, who was a writer for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, said recently that sources point to DeSantis dropping out of the race if he loses the state of Iowa to Trump.

The political consultant’s comments in an opinion piece for The Hill come with sources including a donor to DeSantis's campaign and a political operative. DeSantis would drop out of the race the night of the Iowa decision or the morning after, according to the report.

DeSantis's campaign has denied this report from MacKinnon. "Ron DeSantis is in this for the long haul," DeSantis's team told The Hill.

MacKinnon said if DeSantis drops out of the race, he would also likely endorse Trump for president. Trump has been receiving an increasing number of endorsements from members of Congress and elected offices in recent weeks.

A political consultant highlights that, in Iowa, Trump leads with a national polling average of 51.3%, with DeSantis trailing by 33 percentage points. In New Hampshire, which will vote after Iowa, Trump has an even bigger lead over DeSantis, who ranks fourth place in the state in recent polls.

Why It's Important: MacKinnon anticipates that following Trump’s victory in Iowa, he will likely secure additional endorsements and that donors may cease funding his opponents, potentially seeing the writing on the wall for the 2024 election race.

"I have long believed that the time for DeSantis was 2028. That also may now be a bridge too far," MacKinnon said.

The months of January and February could dramatically shape the 2024 Republican presidential race. MacKinnon's report of DeSantis eyeing an exit after Iowa follows Benzinga sharing the importance of the state of South Carolina as part of Haley's campaign.

The South Carolina Republican primary, scheduled for Feb. 24, is crucial for Haley. Not securing a victory or a significant result in her home state, where she served as governor for eight years, could signify the end of her bid to challenge Trump effectively.

A recent poll found Trump to have a 29-point lead over Haley in South Carolina, with Trump at 54% and Haley at 25%. The 29-point lead is smaller than Trump's national lead in most polls, but comes in a territory likely seen as a must-win for Haley.

Haley and DeSantis will take part in a fifth Republican primary debate on Jan. 10 at 9 p.m. ET, with Trump choosing to skip and Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie not qualifying.

The fifth debate will air on CNN, a unit of Warner Bros. Discovery WBD.

While DeSantis could endorse Trump, according to MacKinnon, he likely won't be hearing his name called as the vice presidential pick. DeSantis previously said "I'm not a number two guy." The two Republican candidates have also been engaged in intense mutual attacks for several months.

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