88% Chance Of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval, Say Prediction Market Traders: $1.4M Bet Looking For SEC's Green Light

The odds for a spot Bitcoin BTC/USD exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by Jan. 15 stand at 88%, according to crypto prediction market Polymarket.

What Happened: According to Polymarket data, the much-awaited ETF is 88% likely to be approved by Jan. 15, with a 77% chance of a Wednesday approval at the time of writing. 

The main market attracted more than $8.5 million in trading volume, making it the most traded prediction market on the platform. The anticipation of a possible approval attracted whales to the platform, with a single trader looking to cash in $1.4 million in case a spot ETF gets the green light.

The Tuesday hack incident when the X account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was breached to falsely announce ETF approval, saw odds of an approval whipsaw between 100% and as low as 42%. 

Also Read: Exploring The Impact: How Spot Bitcoin ETF Approvals Could Reshape The Crypto Landscape

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According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, approval is penciled in for Wednesday.

Prediction market traders seem to agree, although an outside chance of a delay remains — the 10% spread between the odds for an approval on Wednesday and before Jan.15 indicate traders see an outside chance of a last-ditch delay by the SEC. 

Read Next: VanEck CEO Anticipates Spot Bitcoin ETF To Start Trading Thursday, Bitcoin Holds Above $46,000

Photo: Shutterstock.