88% Chance Of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval, Say Prediction Market Traders: $1.4M Bet Looking For SEC's Green Light

The odds for a spot Bitcoin BTC/USD exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by Jan. 15 stand at 88%, according to crypto prediction market Polymarket.

What Happened: According to Polymarket data, the much-awaited ETF is 88% likely to be approved by Jan. 15, with a 77% chance of a Wednesday approval at the time of writing. 

The main market attracted more than $8.5 million in trading volume, making it the most traded prediction market on the platform. The anticipation of a possible approval attracted whales to the platform, with a single trader looking to cash in $1.4 million in case a spot ETF gets the green light.

A single trader has bet $1.4 million on Bitcoin ETF approval.@kiwifruitzzz what do you know? pic.twitter.com/NfuMLe4zTB

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 9, 2024

The Tuesday hack incident when the X account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was breached to falsely announce ETF approval, saw odds of an approval whipsaw between 100% and as low as 42%. 

Also Read: Exploring The Impact: How Spot Bitcoin ETF Approvals Could Reshape The Crypto Landscape

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, approval is penciled in for Wednesday.

Happy ETF Approval Day (for real this time) to all those who celebrate.. as far as we know it's ALL SYSTEMS GO. Most likely is we see formal approvals ballpark 4-6pm today with the Derby starting on Thursday. We are ready at Bloomberg, getting DES pages up as we speak. pic.twitter.com/sh8aoYypdg

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 10, 2024

Prediction market traders seem to agree, although an outside chance of a delay remains — the 10% spread between the odds for an approval on Wednesday and before Jan.15 indicate traders see an outside chance of a last-ditch delay by the SEC. 

Read Next: VanEck CEO Anticipates Spot Bitcoin ETF To Start Trading Thursday, Bitcoin Holds Above $46,000

Photo: Shutterstock.