In November, voters in the U.S. could be tasked with voting in a rematch of the 2020 election with Donald Trump and Joe Biden the expected candidates to win their party's nomination for the 2024 presidential election.
While many people in the U.S. can't bet on the outcome of the 2024 election, a cryptocurrency prediction market has odds and bets ready to go.
What Happened: Crypto prediction market Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science.
One of the most popular betting markets of all time on Polymarket was wagering on whether a Bitcoin BTC/USD ETF would get approved by Jan. 15.
The crypto native betting market saw over $11 million wagered on the prediction of a Bitcoin ETF getting approved.
Another popular betting option is the 2024 election. Bettors can wager on items such as the 2024 Republican nominee, 2024 Democratic nominee, general 2024 election, winners of state primaries and more.
To date, the 2024 Republican nominee and 2024 presidential election are two of the biggest markets on Polymarket with $5.9 million and $4.7 million wagered, respectively.
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon MATIC/USD using USDC USDC/USD and can deposit with Ethereum ETH/USD or from crypto accounts on Coinbase, Robinhood or PayPal, according to the company’s guides.
Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option that ends up being the winner.
The current odds for the Republican nominee in the 2024 election are:
Donald Trump: 86 cents
Nikki Haley: 12 cents
Vivek Ramaswamy: 9.9 cents
Ron DeSantis: 6 cents
The current odds on Polymarket for the 2024 presidential election are:
Donald Trump: 47 cents
Joe Biden: 34 cents
Nikki Haley: 5 cents
Gavin Newsom: 4.1 cents
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 2.7 cents
An election guide from Polymarket currently lists Trump with a 98% chance to win the 2024 Republican nomination and a 76% chance for Biden to win the 2024 Democratic nomination. For the 2024 presidential election, Polymarket betting implies a 49% chance that Trump wins and a 33% chance that Biden wins.
Related Link: Trump Vs. Biden: Former President’s Lead Falls In 2024 Election Poll, Biden Hits Record High Among Democratic Voters
Why It's Important: Polymarket calls itself "the world's largest prediction market." While people can place wagers on fun betting items like the winner of Super Bowl LVIII, who would win in a fight between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg and whether Taylor Swift will be pregnant by the end of March 2024, the 2024 election betting could see massive numbers.
Sports betting is legal in many states, but election betting remains closed off to bettors through legalized sportsbooks in the U.S.
DraftKings Inc DKNG CEO Jason Robins previously told Benzinga he hoped political betting on presidential elections would be allowed in the U.S. someday. DraftKings offers betting on the 2024 U.S. election in Ontario, Canada.
"It's more popular than you might think outside the U.S., a lot of people around the world, particularly in our neighbor in Canada, pay attention," Robins said.
The DraftKings CEO said the company was working with regulators to get election betting approved for states that offer legalized betting.
"I think if it were in the U.S. it would be even bigger. I don't see any particular reason not to allow for election betting in the U.S."
As shared by Benzinga in November, Trump was leading the way in the DraftKings 2024 election betting odds at +137, with Biden close behind at +200.
Polymarket doesn't offer political betting to residents in the U.S. after a ruling made by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
While not all people will be able to use Polymarket to place their wagers on the 2024 election, the political betting markets could quickly become the top markets ever on the platform.
Adding to the allure for Polymarket are posts by Trump on his Truth Social platform where he has shown screenshots of the trading markets showing his strong lead over the Republican competition and over Biden.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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