The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election that saw Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump.
National polls of registered voters continue to show a close hypothetical race for the 2023 election between the two potential candidates.
What Happened: President Biden and former President Trump have been the frontrunners for the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, ahead of the 2024 election for many months.
The most recent Republican voter poll from Morning Consult showed Trump with a 52-point lead and 65% support. Trump's lead and level of support declined from the previous week but remained well ahead of his competitors.
While Trump held a lead of 50 points or more over his Republican opposition in several consecutive weeks, the former president has been neck and neck in a hypothetical matchup against Biden.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select in a hypothetical matchup of Trump versus Biden.
In this week's poll, Trump received 42% of the vote and Biden received 43% of the vote. Eleven percent selected Someone Else and 5% selected Don't Know.
This marked a gain of two percentage points for Biden from the previous week and a return to the lead for the current president. Last week's poll saw Trump leading 42% to 41%.
The important Independent voters, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 pick as the following, with last week's results in parentheses:
Joe Biden: 31% (32%)
Donald Trump: 38% (36%)
Someone Else: 21% (21%)
Don’t Know: 10% (11%)
Biden lost one percentage point and Trump gained two percentage points among the Independent voters from last week’s poll.
The poll found 86% of Republicans selected Trump for the hypothetical 2024 poll, which was up one percentage point from last week’s results. The poll also found that 87% of voters who voted for Trump in the 2020 election are backing him again, which was in line with last week's results.
In the latest poll, 84% of Democratic voters selected Biden, which was in line with last week's poll. The poll also found that 81% of voters who backed Biden in the 2020 election are backing him again in the poll, which is up from 80% in the previous week.
Why It’s Important: The latest poll marks a change in the lead with Biden taking the top position. Trump had led the poll in three straight weeks prior and six of the previous seven weeks.
Over the past 15 weeks, Biden was tied with Trump five times, ahead of the former president four times and ranked behind the former president six times.
Before the past three months, Biden posted a lead of one to two percentage points in almost all polls dating back to when polling began in December.
Trump had been leading Biden in most polls and continues to show a strong lead over Biden in the swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election.
While these items are concerns for Biden, the bigger concern could be what was listed as the top issue for voters ahead of the 2024 election in the Morning Consult poll. Voters selected the economy as the top concern, ranking ahead of national security and healthcare.
The economy being a major concern could be worrisome to Biden’s campaign and the Democrats with the economy and consumers feeling the effects of higher inflation leading to higher prices for goods and services. Some have blamed Biden for not doing enough to help consumers who are struggling with higher prices and living expenses.
Biden recently highlighted the all-time highs for the stock market in a campaign video, which drew the attention of voters and Trump. While stock market indexes are at all-time highs, it comes with high inflation and after 2022, they saw a large market drop.
The S&P 500 gained 37.4% during Biden’s first year in office, which was the best one-year market return under a president since Harry Truman in 1945.
In 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of over 19%, representing the largest annual drop since 2008.
Responding to Biden’s video, Trump said “Biden’s inflation catastrophe is demolishing your savings and ravaging your dreams.”
“The stock market is making rich people richer,” Trump said.
Benzinga recently shared that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, which tracks the S&P 500 Index, is up 23.7% since Biden assumed the presidency. The return over the last nearly two years would represent an average yearly gain of around 11.9%.
During Trump’s four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up a total of around 67% during the four years under Trump, making it one of the best four-year returns for the S&P 500 in recent history.
Although Biden can point to higher stock market prices and record peaks during his tenure, the stock market’s overall performance and annual average returns under Trump still surpassed those during Biden’s time in office.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the economy and stock market returns are likely to become key topics of discussion. If the economy remains the key issue for voters for the 2024 election, the past results may tip the scales in Trump’s favor.
Read Next: Why Buy Stocks In A Presidential Election Year? History Has A Crazy Stat For You
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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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