The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, which saw Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump to become the 46th president of the United States.
National polls of registered voters continue to show a close race between the two potential candidates. With early results from Iowa and New Hampshire, the gap has widened.
What Happened: Biden and Trump have been the frontrunners for the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, ahead of the 2024 election for many months.
Trump won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. The Republican frontrunner also saw rival candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis drop out after the Iowa results, leaving Nikki Haley as his only challenger.
The most recent Morning Consult poll showed Trump with a record 63-point lead over his Republican opposition and a record 75% in support. Trump's lead could grow in the next poll, as DeSantis was still part of the polling figures.
While Trump has held a lead of 50 points or more over his Republican opposition in several consecutive weeks, the former president was neck-and-neck in a matchup against Biden until this week.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select between the two candidates.
In this week's poll, Trump received 45% of the vote while Biden received 40%. Ten percent selected “Someone Else” and 5% selected “Don't Know.”
This marked a gain of two percentage points for Trump and a decline of one percentage point for Biden from the previous week. The poll showed a three-point swing for Trump for a second straight week.
This marks the largest lead for Trump in head-to-head polls against Biden dating back to 2017, according to Morning Consult.
Independent voters, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 pick as the following, with last week's results in parentheses:
Joe Biden: 28% (31%)
Donald Trump: 38% (37%)
Someone Else: 22% (22%)
Don't Know: 12% (10%)
The poll found that 90% of Republican voters selected Trump, which is up three percentage points from last week's results. It also found that 82% of Democratic voters selected Biden, which is in line with last week's results.
Why It's Important: After retaking a lead in the poll two weeks ago, Biden has now fallen further behind Trump.
Over the past 17 weeks, Biden has been tied with Trump five times, ahead of the former president four times and ranked behind the former president eight times.
The poll also broke down head-to-head matchups in seven swing states, showing Trump leading in each state.
Arizona: 39% Biden, 45% Trump
Georgia: 41% Biden, 42% Trump
Michigan: 39% Biden, 44% Trump
Nevada: 37% Biden, 44% Trump
North Carolina: 38% Biden, 48% Trump
Pennsylvania: 40% Biden, 44% Trump
Wisconsin: 40% Biden, 43% Trump
A big concern for voters remains the economy, which ranked ahead of national security and healthcare according to the poll.
Critics have blamed Biden for not doing enough to help consumers who are struggling with higher prices and living expenses.
The president, however, recently highlighted the stock market’s all-time highs. The S&P 500 gained 37.4% during Biden’s first year in office, which was the best one-year market return under a president since Harry Truman in 1945.
In 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of over 19%, representing the largest annual drop since 2008.
During Trump’s four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was up a total of around 67% during the four years under Trump, making it one of the best four-year returns for the S&P 500 in recent history.
Although Biden can point to higher stock market prices and record peaks during his tenure, the stock market’s overall performance and annual average returns under Trump still surpass those during Biden’s time in office.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the economy and stock market returns are likely to become key topics of discussion. If the economy remains the key issue for voters for the 2024 election, past results may tip the scales in Trump’s favor.
Read Next: Why Buy Stocks In A Presidential Election Year? History Has A Crazy Stat For You
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