As President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are almost certain to get their respective party’s nominations for the 2024 presidential election, the interest is centered around which of these would come out trumps in a two-way matchup, and a new poll published on Tuesday offered more clarity on the potential outcome.
What Happened: Trump’s lead over Biden was reduced in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Feb. 9-12, which surveyed 1,237 U.S. adults nationwide. Thirty-seven percent of the respondents said they would vote for Trump in a hypothetical match-up, more than the 34% support for Biden. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points in either direction.
The January survey showed Trump ahead by six percentage points.
In February, 10% said they would vote for other candidates, 12% said they would not vote and 8% refused to answer.
The poll results assume importance because it was conducted after Special Counsel Robert Hur, who probed Biden’s alleged mishandling of classified documents and expressed concerns about the president’s mental health and memory in a Feb. 5 report.
An ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted immediately after the tabling of the report found that 59% of respondents believed both Biden and his predecessor were too old to contest in the 2024 general election.
Trump’s Wall Of Legal Worries: Despite the slight edge, Trump has a cause for worry. The poll found that the former president would lose support among both Republicans and Independents if he was convicted in any of the four criminal cases pending against him. One in four self-identified Republicans and roughly half of the independents declined to vote for him if were convicted of a felony crime by a jury.
Aside from the criminal cases, the U.S. Supreme Court is deliberating the eligibility of Trump to remain on the state ballots due to his alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021 riots. Voters in the state of Colorado filed a lawsuit, calling for Trump’s disqualification on the grounds he violated the 14th Amendment of the Constitution. After the state’s Supreme Court ruled against Trump, his campaign team appealed the decision. The appeals court has referred the case to the SCOTUS.
Trump is way ahead in the Republican presidential primary race if opinion polls are anything to go by. He has already sealed victory in Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The GOP primary race next moves to South Carolina, and poll results have shown he leads Nikki Haley, the only other serious contender left behind in the contest.
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