Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in five swing states despite the legal challenges weighing against the former president, poll results published on Tuesday and Wednesday showed.
What Happened: Emerson College Polling and The Hill combined survey of respondents in the five swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona showed that a plurality of voters support him, although he had absolute majority in none of the states. The survey was conducted between Feb. 14 and Feb. 16 in the first three states and between Feb. 16 and Feb. 19 in the latter two states.
Pennsylvania: Forty-five percent of Pennsylvania voters support Trump in a 2024 potential presidential election, while 43% support Biden. Twelve percent of the voters said they are undecided. Comparisons with the January polls show Trump’s support declined from 48% in January, while Biden’s increased from 41%.
“Pennsylvania independent voters break for Biden over Trump 41% to 35%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Georgia: Forty-eight percent of voters in Georgia support Trump in 2024, while 42% support Biden. Eleven percent said they were undecided. Since January’s Georgia tracking survey, Trump's support has held at 48% while Biden's support has increased one point.
“Biden leads among Black voters, 65% to 20%, with 16% undecided, whereas Trump leads among white voters, 63% to 30%, with 7% undecided,” said Kimball.
Independent voters said they side more with Biden than Trump, with the margin at 44% to 39% in favor of the former. Eighteen percent of the independents are undecided.
North Carolina: In the state of North Carolina, 47% of the voters support Trump, 44% side with Biden and 10% remain undecided. More independents in the state prefer Trump over Biden, with the former chosen by 43% of the respondents and the latter by 40% of voters.
Nevada: Forty-six percent of Nevada voters support Trump and 40% support Biden in a 2024 presidential election matchup, a new Emerson College Polling/KLAS-TV/The Hill poll found. Fourteen percent said they are undecided. Biden’s support fell by four points from the January polls, and Trump’s dipped a more modest one point.
Sixty-one percent of voters said Biden's age raises serious doubts in their minds about voting for him, while 53% said Trump's criminal indictments raise doubts in their mind about voting for him. Incidentally, Trump took almost all of the votes in the Republican caucuses that were held in the state in mid-February. In the Democratic primary that was held in Nevada, Biden secured 89.4% of votes.
Arizona: In Arizona, 46% back Trump and 43% support Biden in a 2024 rematch, while 12% said they are undecided. Biden’s standing with the Arizona voters improved by one point from January, while Trump’s remained essentially unchanged.
“Independent voters narrowly break for Biden, 40% to 38%,” said Kimball, adding that another “key group that carried Biden's win in Arizona in 2020 was the female vote, who were now split between Trump and Biden with 44% apiece.”
Why It’s Important: Swing states are states that are too close to call. These states have in the past swung back and forth between Republicans and Democrats in recent years and are often referred to as “battleground states,” as candidates typically double up campaign efforts there to gain an edge.
Super Tuesday, when most states hold primaries and caucuses, is on March 5 this year. It includes elections in Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.
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