The battle lines for the 2024 presidential election are nearly drawn, with Donald Trump and President Joe Biden likely facing off in what is widely predicted to be a cliffhanger. New poll results from two key battleground states, commonly referred to as swing states, released Wednesday, showed a clear lead for one of the candidates.
North Carolina: In a two-way matchup, Trump led Biden by a margin of 51% to 48% among registered voters in North Carolina and also among voters from the state who said they would definitely vote in the Nov. 5 election, according to the Marist poll. One percent said they were undecided.
The poll was conducted with 1,197 registered voters from the state between March 11-14, with a margin of error of +/-3.6 points.
Trump secured a significant portion of independent voters in the state, with 54% of these registered voters siding with him, while only 46% supported Biden. However, the incumbent’s support among Black voters has dwindled, with only 79% supporting him, down from the 92% he gained among this demographic in 2020. Conversely, his support among Whites improved from 33% in 2020 to 41%.
The poll also found that young North Carolina voters’ support for Trump has increased from the previous election.
In a three-way contest between Trump, Biden, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump received a plurality of the votes (46%), compared with 43% for Biden and 11% for Kennedy.
Commenting on the poll results, Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said, “North Carolina has been a battleground state for several presidential election cycles and remains so in 2024. Both Biden and Trump have secured their base. The tale of the tape will be who commands independent voters and voters who dislike both presidential candidates.”
Among other findings, a majority of North Carolina voters disapproved of Biden’s job as president, with both Biden and Trump having an unfavorable opinion from a majority. Nearly six in 10, or 59%, of North Carolina adults see Biden’s mental fitness as a real concern, compared to 48% who think likewise when it comes to Trump. Twenty-six percent each said preserving democracy and inflation are the top voter issues, while 21% mentioned immigration.
Georgia: Trump’s lead was slightly better at four percentage points in Georgia, with the former president leading Biden by a 51% to 47% margin in a two-way hypothetical matchup. One percent said they were undecided. About 1,177 registered voters in Georgia were contacted between March 11-14 for the poll, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.
Relative to exit polls from the 2020 general election, which Trump lost by a narrow margin, he has gained support among young Americans, with a five percentage-point lead over Biden among voters in the 18-19 age category. In comparison, Biden took away much of these votes in 2020, with a 10 percentage-point lead over Trump. In Georgia, Biden preserved his standing among Black voters.
A three-way race showed 45% support for Trump, 40% for Biden, and 14% for Kennedy in the state. The pollster noted that Kennedy hadn’t yet qualified to be on the ballot in the state.
Miringoff said, “Georgia has been ground zero for Trump's legal problems dating back to the 2020 election. Although the overwhelming majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents think Trump broke the law, only a handful of Republicans think so.”
“Despite all the attention focused on the state's vote count in 2020, more than six in ten Georgia voters across party lines remain confident in the integrity of state and local elections.”
Why It’s Important: Given the close results thrown up in several nationwide and state polls, it is believed that these swing voters are key in deciding the fate of either of the candidates. Georgia and North Carolina, along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, are considered swing states in the current general election.
Based on election results from primaries and opinion polls, it appears that voters are ready to overlook the legal challenges Trump faces and are more focused on key issues such as the economy and immigration. Although Biden and Trump are only four years apart, voters are increasingly concerned about the former’s cognitive ability and mental acuity.
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