Donald Trump could come out on top with an absolute majority in the 2024 election, said polling expert Nate Silver in a post on Wednesday.
What Happened: Over time, the reasons that Trump would win have gradually become somewhat more compelling than the reasons for Biden, said Silver in his Silver Bulletin substack post. Silver is a famed statistician and the founder of polling analytics firm FiveThirtyEight and he has been making predictions since 2008.
Silver noted that voters have extremely “persistent concerns” about Biden’s age and inflation ran high from mid-2021 to mid-2023 and despite the thawing prices are still above the levels that prevailed when the president took office. The global mood is pessimistic and incumbents were getting crushed everywhere, he said.
The polling expert also said some of the factors he thought would pan out to Biden’s advantage haven’t proved to be, including a less-than-expected funding gap.
“I'm not sure that Biden has run the smarter tactical campaign,” he said.
Biden Losing In Electoral College: Silver said Trump was favored by a slightly larger degree than he had anticipated but retains highly viable paths to victory. But in the crucial electoral college, Trump will pocket 287 votes, a little more than the 270 seats he needs to win a re-election, the New York Post reported, citing Silver’s simulation-based model. On the other hand, Biden will likely edge out Trump by 47.2% to 47.1% in terms of the national popular vote.
“The candidate who I honest to God think has a better chance (Trump) isn't the candidate I'd rather have win (Biden),” the expert said.
Among the battleground states, if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, where he is trailing very badly, he needs to win in all three others, namely Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Silver said. The president should also hold onto states like New Hampshire and Virginia.
“In a time of extremely high polarization, elections tend toward being 50/50 affairs, and it's a challenge to win the 50/50 races when you're at a disadvantage in the Electoral College,” FiveThirtyEight founder said.
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