For many months, a head-to-head battle between Donald Trump and President Joe Biden was expected for the 2024 presidential election.
The first 2024 presidential debate has led to calls for Biden to be replaced and volatility in the betting and prediction markets with around four months to go before election day.
What Happened: A poor performance by Biden at the first debate and growing concerns over his age have led to increased calls for the president to step down ahead of the 2024 election.
Various reports have pointed to Biden supporters and allies calling for a new candidate to replace him for a better shot of beating Trump in the highly anticipated election.
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris reiterated that they are seeking to win reelection together, according to a report from the Associated Press. The report said Biden has also personally reached out with several members of Congress in an effort to drum up support.
An earlier Wednesday New York Times report said Biden was contemplating his future in the election after the poor showing in the debate. The White House denied the report saying they were "absolutely false."
New 2024 election polls released since the debate have shown Trump's lead growing nationally and in the important swing states that could decide the winner.
Betting Odds: The debate showing and calls for Biden to move aside in the election have led to high volatility in betting odds for the 2024 election.
"Joe Biden is facing mounting pressure to pull out of the 2024 U.S. presidential race after a dismal performance at the first of two debates," Covers writes in an update on the betting odds.
Formerly listed as a betting favorite or slight underdog to Trump, Biden's odds stand at +350 to win the 2024 election according to Covers. The odds for Biden to drop out of the presidential race are listed at +185, implying a 35.1% probability.
Following the debate, the betting odds installed Trump as a bigger favorite to win the election, regardless of who his opposition would be. Odds on June 29 from Bet365 provided by Covers showed the following:
Donald Trump: -188
Joe Biden: +350
Gavin Newsom: +550
Kamala Harris: +2,200
Michelle Obama: +2,200
Gretchen Whitmer: +2,500
Hillary Clinton: +5,000
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: +6,600
The debate saw Trump gain from his previous odds of -150 to a new lead of -188. Biden went from being a slight underdog at +162 to a bigger underdog at +350. Other potential candidates like Newsom saw their odds gain with the California governor going from +2,000 to +550.
The sharp change in odds comes after the market already saw a brief reset after Trump's hush money trial.
"Despite being found guilty of 34 charges in his New York hush money trial, Trump remains the favorite to be the next president at -110," Covers' Betting Analyst Rohit Ponnaiya told Benzinga at the time.
After the verdict, Biden briefly passed Trump as the favorite at -110 with Trump at +120, before the market stabilized to Trump as the favorite at -110 and Biden at +137.
Post-debate odds to win the Democratic nomination were as follows on June 29:
Joe Biden: -500
Gavin Newsom: +900
Michelle Obama: +1,000
Kamala Harris: +1,200
Trump has topped the betting odds for several months in the race for the 2024 presidential election. Back in August 2023, Biden was the favorite to win re-election.
Going back to Biden's inauguration in January 2021, it was Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election at odds of +350, based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.
Prediction Markets: Prediction markets like Polymarket have seen a surge in political-themed markets, including those on the 2024 presidential election.
Polymarket, which calls itself "the world's largest prediction market," offers betting on several political outcomes. On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon network MATIC/USD, or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. In each betting market, the winning option pays out at $1.
Over $217 million has been wagered on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket. Here are the current projected odds on Polymarket, with odds from May 31 in parentheses:
Donald Trump: 62% (55%)
Kamala Harris: 16% (1%)
Joe Biden: 13% (39%)
Gavin Newsom: 3% (1%)
Michelle Obama: 3% (3%)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 2% (2%)
Other Democrat (including Gretchen Whitmer): 6%
Biden previously led Trump 44% to 43% on Polymarket, but the former president's odds have increased significantly in recent months. Harris passed Biden on Wednesday thanks to the numerous reports of Biden potentially considering stepping aside and calls growing for a replacement.
A separate prediction market on Polymarket allows bettors to wager on who the Democratic nominee will be. On Wednesday, the odds were:
Biden: 42%
Harris: 37%
Other (Whitmer): 10%
Obama: 7%
Newsom: 5%
Another Polymarket market asks whether Biden will drop out of the presidential race. The market shows a 60% chance that Biden will drop out, which is up over 160% in the last 24 hours and hitting all-time highs Wednesday.
Read Next:
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Comments
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
