Donald Trump led his rival Joe Biden across the battleground states ahead of the Pennsylvania shooting incident and the imminent Republican National Convention, the results of a new poll published on Saturday.
Trump Ahead: The former president edged out Biden by a 50% to 48% margin across the battleground states, a new CBS News/YouGov survey carried out on July 5-12 showed. A representative sample of 1,093 registered voters living in battleground states were interviewed. The margin of error of the survey was +/- 3.4 points.
The polls concluded ahead of the Pennsylvania shooting and haven’t factored in potential swing toward Trump.
Among the likely voters, the break-up in support between the candidates of the two main political parties were as follows:
| Trump | Biden | |
| Michigan | 51% | 49% |
| Pennsylvania | 51% | 49% |
| Wisconsin | 51% | 49% |
| Arizona | 51% | 49% |
| Georgia | 51% | 49% |
| Nevada | 51% | 49% |
| North Carolina | 52% | 48% |
The poll found that Trump’s advantage was due to a higher percentage of Republicans saying they would definitely vote relative to the percentage of Democrats. Ninety-three percent of the registered GOP voters said they will definitely vote. This percentage was a more modest 85% for Democrats and 80% for independents.
Biden was at a disadvantage with voters who feel he does not have the cognitive and mental health to continue in his role. Seventy-one percent of registered voters said Biden does not have mental and cognitive health to serve as president. Only 50% of the respondents felt the same about Trump.
More Excited About Trump: A nationwide survey conducted in conjunction with the poll showed that there is greater satisfaction among Republicans about having Trump as the nominee today than there was when he first won the nomination in 2016.
Twice as many Republicans are excited about it today than they were then.
On Trump’s potential running mate, Republican voters would generally be satisfied, but not necessarily enthusiastic, about some of the names being discussed.
| enthusiastic/satisfied | Disappointed | Not Sure | |
| Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) | 61% | 12% | 27% |
| Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) | 43% | 10% | 47% |
| Doug Burgum (North Carolina Governor) | 34% | 11% | 55% |
| Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) | 51% | 10% | 38% |
| Nikki Haley | 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) | 31% | 13% | 56% |
Why It’s Important: The results assume importance as the RNC kicks off on Monday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the Fiserv Forum arena. At the end of the four-day event, Trump will likely be announced as the party’s nominee, with the assassination attempt potentially tilting the scales further toward his side.
The convention is likely to be attended by about 2,400 delegates and will officially nominate Trump through a roll call on Monday.
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