President Biden's Nomination Odds Plummet: Vice President Kamala Harris Now 60% Favorite, But There May Be A Catch

As political tensions rise and the 2024 Presidential election approaches, speculation about the Democratic party’s nominee is intensifying.

What Happened: New updates from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket reveal changing odds regarding the Democratic National Convention (DNC), President Joe Biden‘s potential withdrawal from the race, and the Democratic nominee for 2024.

These updates come amid a flurry of activity on social media, including a notable tweet from political analyst Mark Halperin.

Halperin cited multiple unnamed sources that President Biden may pull out of the race as soon as this weekend but not resign the presidency. The President would also not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris and instead, an open convention at the Democratic National Convention may decide the new nominee.

BREAKING NEWS: Multiples sources outline the apparent state of play on Biden at this time:

* plans to announce withdrawal from nomination as early as this weekend, with Sunday most likely

* Jon Meacham polishing up remarks

* Biden with NOT resign the presidency

* Biden will… https://t.co/l0LrfDTvOL

— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) July 18, 2024

Odds on Polymarket oscillated following the tweet, which received more than 14.5 million impressions at the time of writing. Among the markets bettors were speculating on are:

1. DNC Open Convention: The likelihood of an open convention for the DNC has been a hot topic. Polymarket users are actively betting on this possibility, giving it a 35% chance at the time of writing.
2. Biden Dropping Out: The odds of President Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race have surged dramatically. According to Polymarket, the probability of Biden withdrawing has skyrocketed to over 80%, up from just 33% two days ago. This shift follows reports from major news outlets, including Axios, suggesting increased pressure on Biden from top Democrats to step aside.
3. Democratic Nominee for 2024: The race for the Democratic nomination is heating up. Vice President Kamala Harris currently leads the Polymarket odds with a 61% chance of becoming the nominee. Other potential candidates include California Governor Gavin Newsom (4%), Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (13% aggregated). President Biden still has a 19% chance, while former First Lady Michelle Obama is given a 5% chance.

Also Read: Mark Cuban: Trump’s Re-Election Won’t Directly Impact Bitcoin’s Price

Why It Matters: President Biden, now 81, has faced mounting pressure following a lackluster debate performance and a recent positive COVID-19 test.

Prominent Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY)and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have reportedly urged Biden to reconsider his candidacy.

Former President Barack Obama has also expressed concerns about Biden’s viability for re-election, according to The Washington Post.

This backdrop of internal party pressure and public scrutiny has fueled the betting activity on platforms like Polymarket.

The Democratic National Convention, set for Aug. 19 in Chicago, will be a pivotal moment for the party as it navigates these uncertainties.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, stakeholders and observers are keenly watching for further developments. The Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 will offer insights into how these political dynamics might impact the broader financial and digital asset markets.

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