A trader on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket bet over $1 million on President Joe Biden not finishing his term, despite the President committing to the contrary in his Wednesday speech.
What Happened: Besides betting $1 million on the President resigning early, ‘Anon1933‘ also wagered over $100,000 on Biden resigning before July 31 and almost $20,000 on the President stepping down before the end of August. The trader is currently down over $300,000 on their positions.
Polymarket traders currently assign a 29% chance the President does not serve out his term, a 2% chance of a resignation before the end of the month and a 9% chance of President Biden resigning by the end of August.
Over $12 million has been traded on the market for President Biden to finish his term. Odds dropped as low as 46% on Monday amid rumors about the President’s health. President Biden did not address his health in his Wednesday speech, focusing instead on his legacy and the rationale for stepping back from being the Democratic nominee.
Also Read: President Biden’s Exit Followed Nearly $80M In Wagers On Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket
Why It Matters: Polymarket, a decentralized prediction markets platform, has shattered its monthly trading volume record in July, surpassing $275 million and highlighting the growing interest in crypto-based betting on political outcomes, The Block reported.
The platform’s unprecedented surge in activity is primarily driven by users eager to wager on U.S. political events.
Following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, the platform indicates a 94% chance for Vice President Kamala Harris to secure the Democratic nomination. Former White House official Anthony Scaramucci stated he is looking forward to seeing her policies on crypto.
What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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