Editor’s Note: A line in this article was corrected to clarify Kamala Harris’s support in the swing states.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are likely set for a head-to-head battle after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential election.
Election polls show a close race with Harris gaining ground from Biden in the head-to-head matchups against Trump.
What Happened: Since the first 2024 presidential debate, Trump has been gaining ground in the 2024 election polls and betting odds from sportsbooks and prediction markets.
That dominance could be ending with Harris likely the winner of the Democratic Party nomination to replace Biden.
Recent polls show Harris with a closer margin to Trump in the 2024 election race.
A new Emerson College swing state poll shows Harris gaining ground in the key battleground states that could decide the 2024 election. The results of the poll are:
- Arizona: 44% Harris, 49% Trump, 7% Undecided
- Georgia: 46% Harris, 48% Trump, 7% Undecided
- Michigan: 45% Harris, 46% Trump, 9% Undecided
- Pennsylvania: 46% Harris, 48% Trump, 7% Undecided
- Wisconsin: 47% Harris, 47% Trump, 5% Undecided
While Harris trails Trump in four of the five swing states used in the poll, she manages to be tied with Trump in Wisconsin. The poll also finds Harris gaining in support in each of the five swing states compared to where Biden stood earlier this month.
These were Biden's voter support figures for the five states in earlier July and Harris' gain:
- Arizona: 40%, gained four points
- Georgia: 41%, gained five points
- Michigan: 42%, gained three points
- Pennsylvania: 43%, gained three points
- Wisconsin: 43%, gained four points
"Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate," Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said. "Harris' numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March."
The poll also found that Harris gained huge support from young voters in the swing states. Here are the percentage point gains Harris has over Biden's figures earlier this month:
- Arizona: +16 points
- Georgia: +8 points
- Michigan: +5 points
- Pennsylvania: +11 points
- Wisconsin: +1 point
Why It's Important: The latest poll shows that over 75% of voters in each of the swing states believe Harris should be the Democratic Party nominee.
The poll found that voters have similar favorability rankings for Harris compared to Trump, which are listed below:
- Arizona: Harris 45%, Trump 49%
- Georgia: Harris 47%, Trump 49%
- Michigan: Harris 47%, Trump 48%
- Pennsylvania: Harris 47%, Trump 46%
- Wisconsin: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Trump leads the poll for male voters in each of the swing states by double-digit percentage points, with Harris leading each of the five swing states for female voters, with a double-digit lead in Michigan (+12) and Wisconsin (+12).
The economy ranked as the top issue for voters in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and ranked second in Arizona. Immigration ranked as the top issue in Arizona and ranked second in Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Swing states remain a key battle in the 2024 election and could be the deciding factor for the winner. The five swing states listed above represent 71 electoral votes.
All five of the states listed above voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election and flipped to Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
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