Kamala Harris Veepstakes: Why Canceled Events, Geography Have People Speculating On Josh Shapiro Pick

Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is narrowing the search for a running mate ahead of the 2024 presidential campaign.

Per NBC News, the six candidates (and their betting market odds on Polymarket):

• Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, 71%
• Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, 14%
• Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, 8%
• Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, 4%
• Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, 3%
• and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire Hyatt heir, has less than a 1% chance.

The Harris campaign is likely looking for a moderate, male running mate to balance the ticket and appeal to swing state voters.

Speculation Abounds: Shapiro’s odds jumped from 33% to over 70% on July 30 and 31 after the governor canceled weekend fundraising events in the Hamptons for Aug. 3 and 4.

“The Governor's trip was planned several weeks ago and included several fundraisers for his own campaign committee,” Shapiro Spokesman Manuel Bonder told FOX 29. “His schedule has changed and he is no longer traveling to the Hamptons this weekend.”

But Beshear, Walz and Buttigieg also canceled scheduled weekend events.

A GOP insider told Axios that many top Republicans assume Harris will pick Shapiro.

When Will We Find Out?: Harris is expected to announce her running mate on Tuesday, Aug. 6, in Philadelphia, adding fuel to the fire to the Shapiro speculation.

According to preeminent election forecaster Nate Silver, Pennsylvania is the state most likely (40% chance) to be the tipping point in the election.

Shapiro enjoys a high 61% favorability in his home state, according to a Fox News poll. Shapiro’s high popularity makes him a logical choice if Harris wants to maximize electoral chances in Pennsylvania.

Historically, presidential candidates have not often announced their vice presidential pick in their running mate’s home state. However, the announcement’s geography in the Keystone State clearly has Shapiro backers liking their chances.

Candidates’ Stances: Odds-on favorite Shapiro served as Pennsylvania Attorney General from 2017 to 2023 and Governor from 2023 to the present.

His 2022 gubernatorial campaign focused on business innovation, workers’ rights, and reproductive rights. As governor, he has supported raising the minimum wage and lowering corporate taxes. Shapiro’s support of private school vouchers and comments critical of pro-Palestinian student activism have drawn the ire of some on the left.

Kelly, a former astronaut, is most known for his staunch positions on gun control. His wife — former congresswoman Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) — was nearly killed in a 2011 assassination attempt. According to ABC News, he is one of three Democratic senators who did not support the pro-labor PRO Act. His push to join Harris on the ticket has received pushback from labor groups. He has also made comments to the right of the Biden administration on border security.

Beshear, who has won three statewide elections in solidly red Kentucky, has taken positions supporting infrastructure spending, gambling legalization and healthcare spending. He signed an executive order restoring the voting rights of 180,315 Kentuckians convicted of nonviolent felonies, the most of any governor in history.

Walz is a supporter of recreational cannabis legislation, gun rights and public education. With a narrow legislative majority as governor, Walz passed an agenda of increasing infrastructure spending, tax credits and expanding free school lunch. Minnesota’s budget increased 40% after Walz’s election in 2022, per the Star Tribune.

Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign supported a $15 minimum wage, policy to curb economic inequality and paid family leave, per Politico. As transportation secretary, the South Bend, Indiana native has supported pro-consumer policies.

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