Zinger Key Points
- Kamala Harris edges ahead of Donald Trump in latest national polls, sparking discussions on electoral dynamics.
- Electoral College calculus remains a hurdle despite Harris' popular vote lead in multiple surveys.
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Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Donald Trump in eight national polls.
What Happened: These polls suggest a lead for Harris over Trump, ranging from 1 to 4 points. The latest survey by RMG Research, conducted among 3,000 registered voters from July 29 to July 31, shows Harris leading Trump by 5 points nationwide.
Similarly, a poll by Civiqs also indicated a 5-point lead for Harris over Trump. In a Leger poll, Harris led Trump by 3 points, which increased to 7 points when third-party and independent candidates were included.
According to a report by Newsweek, four other national polls, including those by The Economist and YouGov, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Angus Reid, and Florida Atlantic University, showed a smaller lead of 2 points for Harris over Trump.
However, despite these numbers favoring Harris, some experts still view Trump as the favorite for the November election. Election analyst and statistician Nate Silver opined that while Harris is more likely to win the popular vote, Trump has a higher chance of winning the Electoral College.
Why It Matters: While Harris is leading in these polls, aggregate polls from The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris by between 1 and 2 points.
The Democratic nominee is expected to announce her running mate in the coming days, which could potentially influence the polling numbers.
It’s important to note that while national polls provide a snapshot of the overall voter sentiment, the U.S. presidential election is ultimately decided by the Electoral College.
Therefore, state-level polls and swing states often play a decisive role in the election outcome.
Did You Know?
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This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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