Trump Vs. Harris: One Candidate's Lead Bolstered By 2 Voter Groups, Yet It Might Not Translate To Electoral College Victory Going By 2020 Popular Vote Margin

The results of two separate polls released ahead of the Democratic National Convention, scheduled to be held in Chicago, showed a slight edge for the party’s candidate in the Nov. 5 election but the race is still close to call, given several dynamics in play.

Harris Leads But Not By Much: Vice President Kamala Harris has fared better than President Joe Biden against Republican nominee Donald Trump in a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. Harris trumped Trump by a 49%-45% margin among registered voters, a neat four percentage point lead. Incidentally, in early July, Trump and Biden, who has since then quit the race, were deadlocked.

The poll conducted on Aug. 9-13 surveyed 2,336 respondents and 1,975 registered voters, with the margin of error among the latter group at +/-2 percentage points.

When third-party candidates were included, Harris polled 47% and Trump 44%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. taking away 5% of support. For Democrats, this marked an improvement from the 43%-42% margin in favor of the Republicans in early July, when Trump was matched up against Biden.

“Given the margin of error in this poll, which tests only national support, Harris's lead among registered voters is not considered statistically significant,” the post said. The three percentage point lead Harris commanded in a multi-party race is smaller than the 4.5-point popular margin Biden commanded in 2020, which translated into an electoral college majority.

The tight contest means the seven swing states, namely Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, would determine who wins in the electoral college, the Post said.

Harris, however, has received strong backing among her supporters, with 62% saying they strongly supported her as opposed to 34% who backed Biden strongly in July. The report said Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who is Harris’ running mate, has drawn huge crowds during his tour in key battleground states.

In a one-on-one contest, Harris fared better than Biden against Trump among several key demographic groups such as those under the age of 40 and independents leaning toward Democrats. The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll shows her margin over Trump among voters under age 40 at 25 percentage points, compared with Biden's seven-point advantage in July. Democratic-leaning independents, shifted from 77% supporting Biden after the first debate to 92% for Harris in the new poll.

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Deadlock In Swing States: A separate CBS News/YouGov poll found that the race was even across battleground states, with Harris and Trump receiving 50% support each. The representative sample of 3,258 registered voters nationwide were interviewed between August 14-16, with the margin of error at +/-2.1 percentage points. Nationwide, Harris led Trump by 51% to 48%.

The candidates on either side of the aisle have their own unique advantages, the poll found. Trump was favored more by people who say the economy is a major factor and he also led among voters who said they weren’t doing as well financially.

Voters were also focused on more issues such as abortion, the state of democracy, and the border, among others. The poll also found there has been a pronounced gender gap between men and women and very different views of which candidate would help them.

CBS News said most voters are still learning about Harris, so the DNC is key as it would bring forth more information about her views and her proposed policy measures. A third of the voters said they did not know what she stood for. Most voters said her views were similar but not entirely the same as Biden’s and that she was somewhat, but not entirely connected to the Biden economy.

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