Vice President Kamala Harris has pushed ahead of her Republican rival Donald Trump in the state of Virginia, the results of the Roanoke College Poll published Tuesday showed. The results were in line with the outcome of several nationwide polls.
Harris’ Slim Lead: Democratic candidate Harris has managed to build up a three-point lead among Virginian voters in a head-to-head matchup, with 47% supporting her and 44% backing Trump, the poll results showed. The vice president was also ahead in a multi-candidate fray by a margin of 45%-42%.
The leads in both scenarios were within the poll’s margin of +/-4.5 points. The survey was done between Aug. 12 and 16, 2024. with 691 likely voters in Virginia questioned for the purpose.
When multiple candidates were included on the ballot, independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. took away 6% of support and Cornel West 2%, and Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver 2%. Green Party’s Jill Stein did not manage to win any support and 3% chose the “others’ category.
Harris’ lead, though slim, is commendable given Roanoke College Poll’s May survey showed Trump and President Joe Biden, who has since then quit the race, were deadlocked.
Kennedy’s campaign is reportedly considering his exit from the race and backing Trump instead.
When the poll probed about whom the likely voters in the state would have voted for if Biden had stayed on, respondents gave Trump a six-point lead over him. About 3% said they had not planned to vote in a Biden-Trump matchup.
Voters Solidifying Choices. The poll found that 79% of the likely voters were very certain of their choices and 18% were somewhat certain. Sixty percent of the voters were very enthusiastic about voting and 25% were “somewhat enthusiastic.” While 31% said they would vote ahead of the election day, 68% looked forward to voting on the D-day.
Voters’ Perception: 45% of the voters thought Harris was more liberal than Biden, with merely 16% thinking she was more conservative than Biden.
On the failed assassination attempt at Trump, 50% said they thought the former president’s immediate response showed toughness. 44% said it was an attempt to gain votes.
Likely voters generally perceive Harris to be more liberal than Biden (45%), with only 16% thinking she is more conservative. Half of the respondents (50%) think Trump's immediate response to the attempted assassination showed toughness; nearly as many (44%) see it as an attempt to gain votes.
A little over 50% said they think Trump is a threat to democracy, while 47% see the Democratic party process of replacing Biden with Harris as such a threat. The former president scored better than Harris regarding voters’ view about how strong they were to take on the threat of the adversaries of the U.S. such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Neither candidate’s vice presidential pick generated much enthusiasm among voters. With the Democratic party’s Tim Walz, 30% were dissatisfied and 14% were angry. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) fared worse with 32% dissatisfied with him and 18% angry.
“The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought," said Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.
“Both candidates are polling very well within their party, and there is a minuscule number of undecided voters. The party bases remain important, as always. The number who say they will vote third party is declining, and those voters may well determine who wins in Virginia.”
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