Speculation is mounting about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially dropping out of the presidential race, with bettors weighing in on who stands to gain the most if Kennedy exits the race.
What Happened: According to the latest odds from crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, Donald Trump is poised to gain ground if RFK Jr. drops out, with a 54% chance of gaining more in the polls, compared to Kamala Harris’ 46%.
The increase in Harris’ odds compared to the low 30s when the market was opened, shows that bettors believe her campaign could effectively capture a substantial portion of Kennedy’s moderate and independent supporters.
The implications of RFK Jr.’s potential exit are further exacerbated by another Polymarket betting market showing an 86% chance—up from 73%—that RFK Jr. will endorse Trump in his Friday press conference.
Such an endorsement could solidify Trump’s base by attracting Kennedy’s supporters, who resonate with his anti-establishment stance and skepticism towards mainstream political discourse.
On another market, Trump winning the election and subsequently nominating RFK Jr. to his cabinet is given a 29% chance.
While this scenario remains speculative, it highlights the unpredictable and dynamic nature of the current race.
This possibility could significantly alter the race's trajectory, influencing voter perceptions and the overall strategy of both campaigns.
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Why It Matters: These predictions come follow reports of ongoing negotiations between the Kennedy and Trump camps.
The Hill’s Senior Political Correspondent Hannah Trudo tweeted that a source familiar with the situation confirms talks are underway, with Kennedy seeking assurances about maintaining the $15 million state ballot infrastructure.
The potential impact of RFK Jr.’s exit from the race is not only significant for the political landscape but also carries substantial implications for the cryptocurrency market.
As the 2024 election progresses, the crypto market is increasingly responsive to political developments, particularly those involving candidates’ stances on blockchain technology and digital currencies.
The endorsement of Trump by RFK Jr., or his potential withdrawal, could lead to increased volatility in crypto markets, as investors react to the possible policy shifts that these political changes might signal.
In this context, the upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 takes on added importance.
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