Oil Prices Seesaw As Potential Storm Nears US Gulf Coast

Oil futures edged up but then fell on Monday as a possible hurricane makes its way toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, continuing last week’s losses.

Brent crude was up 16 cents, or 0.23%, to $71.22 a barrel at 8:15 a.m. ET while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 19 cents, or 0.28%, higher at $67.86, Reuters reported.

By 10 a.m. ET, however, Brent crude slipped 26 cents, or 0.37%, to $70.80 a barrel by 10 a.m. ET while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.53.

Prices of Brent crude had dropped over the past six trading sessions, falling by more than 11%, or almost $9 a barrel, to post the lowest closing price since December 2021 on Friday.

Analysts noted that Monday’s brief rebound was driven in part by concerns over a potential hurricane approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast, along with supply disruptions from Libya, which have been pushing prices higher, according to Reuters.

Libya’s NOC (National Oil Corporation) late last week declared force majeure on several crude cargoes loading from the Es Sider port, with oil production curtailed by a political standoff over the central bank and oil revenue, four trading sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

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A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday. The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for about 60% of U.S. refining capacity.

“A small recovery in prices is under way this morning, inspired by hurricane warnings that might threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, but the wider conversation remains on where demand will come from and what OPEC+ can do,” said PVM analyst John Evans, according to Reuters.

The OPEC+ oil producer group last week held back a planned output increase of 180,000 barrels per day for October by two months in reaction to tumbling crude prices

Trading houses Gunvor and Trafigura are expecting oil prices to range between $60 and $70 a barrel due to sluggish Chinese demand and persistent oversupply, executives told the APPEC conference in Singapore on Monday.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price forecast for the fourth quarter from $80 a barrel to $75, adding that prices are likely to remain around that level unless demand weakens further.

Price Action: Oil companies saw gains into Monday’s early-morning trading.

• Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM gained 0.56% to $113.28
• Chevron Corporation CVX rose 0.58% to $139.37
• Marathon Oil Corporation MRO picked up 0.52% to $26.86

Exchange-traded funds that hold oil stocks declined.

• United States Oil Fund LP USO declined 1.15%
• ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil UCO fell 2.13%
• United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO declined 1.04%

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.