Following Tuesday’s debate, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a narrow lead in the 2024 U.S. presidential race among aggregated betting markets but still trails on the biggest and most liquid platform.
What Happened: ElectionBettingOdds.com data shows the Vice President leading former President Donald Trump by a 50.9% to 48% chance. The site aggregates different markets, including from smaller platforms like PredictIt and overseas betting exchanges like Betfair.
Interestingly, on Polymarket, the most liquid election trading market with over $870 million traded, Trump is back in the lead by a 50% to 48.5% margin, following a brief dip after his debate performance.
In the crypto sphere, a poll shared on X (formerly Twitter) by user Hoeem revealed that 72% of the poll’s respondents favor Trump. While this poll doesn’t represent the entire crypto community, it provides insight into the preferences of a segment of crypto enthusiasts on the platform.
Another poll by QwQiao showed similar results, with 76% of respondents supporting Trump.
It’s important to note that these Twitter polls, while indicative of sentiment among some crypto users, are not scientific surveys and do not represent the entire cryptocurrency community.
Former Messari CEO Ryan Selkis said that while Trump’s performance in the debate had flaws, there’s an expectation that he might perform stronger in future debates.
“I think it was a draw for this reason. He definitely lost on style, and missed countless opportunities to bury her. He was sloppy. If they do another debate, he’s going to absolutely destroy her on neutral terrain,” he said.
Economist Peter Schiff acknowledged areas where Trump’s debate performance could have been stronger, he suggested that Trump’s economic messaging resonated more than that of his opponents.
“It would have been good if Trump would have been a little bit more specific and personal on the hardships or feeling when they’re struggling to pay their rising rent, to pay their credit card bills, to buy groceries,” Schiff said.
Schiff was critical of both candidates but seemed to view Trump as the lesser of two evils from an economic perspective.
He noted, “Trump came off a bit angry. I don’t know if that’s a positive or a negative. I mean, he was strong, but I thought he made some good points, but I thought there were some better points that he could have made but didn’t.”
The economist also touched on the need for economic reform, stating, “The best plan for health care is to get the government out of it. Right. And to introduce more free market forces.”
Despite the critiques, Schiff didn’t believe the debate significantly altered the race. “I don’t think anybody really did something that was so dramatic that it caused people that had already made up their minds to change their candidate,” he said.
The strong support for Trump within segments of the cryptocurrency community, coupled with his close position to Harris in general election odds, suggests that digital asset policy could play a significant role in the upcoming election.
What’s Next: The intersection of politics, economics, and the future of cryptocurrency is likely to be a key point of discussion at the upcoming Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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