Trump In Trouble: Vice President Harris Has Record 6-Point Lead In 2024 Election Poll After Debate, Posts Highest Rankings In Key Demographics

Vice President Kamala Harris posts a record lead over Donald Trump in a poll of likely voters with less than two months to go until the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Harris continues to see leads in head-to-head polls against the former president and posts her largest lead in a national poll, which comes after the Sept. 10 presidential debate.

Polls pointed to Harris being crowned the winner of the first presidential debate between the vice president and former president. Trump has declined doing more debates ahead of the election and said he won the first meeting between the two candidates.

A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters show Harris' lead growing after the presidential debate.

The new poll shows the following results from voters, with the results from the Sept. 10 poll in parentheses:

• Kamala Harris: 51% (49%)
• Donald Trump: 45% (46%)
• Someone Else: 2% (2%)
• Don't Know: 2% (2%)

The poll found that 94% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, in line with last week's poll. The poll also found that 91% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, which was in line with last week's poll.

Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Sept. 10 poll in parentheses:

• Kamala Harris: 47% (46%)
• Donald Trump: 41% (40%)
• Someone Else: 6% (6%)
• Don't Know: 6% (7%)

Harris maintained a six-point lead in the race for Independent voters, with both candidates gaining one percentage point from the previous poll.

The vice president also has the edge in the 18-34 aged voters demographic, leading 56% to 41%. The 15-point lead is significantly higher than Harris' 10-point lead last week (53% to 43%) and her five-point lead (50% to 45%) two weeks ago.

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Why It's Important: The most recent Morning Consult polls have shifted to include only the results of likely voters and not all registered voters. This could provide one of the better illustrations of what could happen in November.

If the results are indicative of what could happen, it could be bad news for Trump.

Harris now has her largest lead over the former president since she became the Democratic Party nominee. Harris also has her best figures to date among Democrats, voters who picked Joe Biden in the 2020 election, liberals, women, 18-34 aged voters and millennials. Her dominance across multiple key voter demographics could point to growing optimism that she can defeat Trump in the 2024 election.

Harris' 51% support is a record high for a Democratic candidate in the 2024 election since Morning Consult began tracking the race.

The latest poll shows Harris with a favorable rating of 53%, up from 50% in last week's poll. This marks the largest rating for Harris in the 2024 election cycle. For comparison, Trump has a 44% favorable rating. While Trump's unfavorable rating has often been higher than his favorable rating, his figures have been improving in recent weeks.

With less than two months to go in the 2024 election, the race remains close and the six-point and growing lead could be a sign of a potential shift in how close the race is. But it's important to remember that polls are not entirely perfect.

Biden had an eight-point lead over Trump two months before the 2020 election and ended up winning the popular vote by four points.

While Harris leads in several key demographics such as independents and young voters, the 2024 election will likely come down to swing states.

Morning Consult recently released the results of likely voters in swing states and several other states expected to be close. Here are the current results:

• Arizona: 47% Harris, 49% Trump
• Georgia: 48% Harris, 48% Trump
• Michigan: 49% Harris, 46% Trump
• Nevada: 48% Harris, 48% Trump
• North Carolina: 48% Harris, 48% Trump
• Pennsylvania: 49% Harris, 46% Trump
• Wisconsin: 49% Harris, 46% Trump

In the key seven swing states, Harris leads in three states, Trump leads in one state and the two candidates are tied in three states.

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