Key Stock Market Dates Predicting Major Swings Revealed Ahead Of 2024 Election, According To Bank Of America

Bank of America has identified crucial dates for the stock market leading up to the November Presidential election.

What Happened: In a note released on Monday, Bank of America highlighted several key dates. The bank used options prices to predict potential movements in the S&P 500 index. The most significant date is Nov. 6, the day after the election, with an estimated 2.5% move in either direction, reported Business Insider.

Other important dates include Oct. 4 and Nov. 1, when nonfarm payroll reports are released. These dates could see a 1% move in the S&P 500. Oct. 21 is another critical date, marking the start of major tech companies’ third-quarter earnings announcements.

Additionally, Oct. 10 is noted for the release of the September CPI data, though its impact is expected to be less significant compared to labor market data. The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut has shifted focus from inflation to labor market indicators.

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Why It Matters: The stock market is on edge as it approaches the November election, with several analysts predicting significant volatility.

Stifel recently warned of a potential 12% market drop by the end of 2024, citing high valuations and speculative risks. Chief equity strategist Barry Bannister pointed out that the S&P 500 could experience a correction to the low 5,000s by the fourth quarter.

In early September, Tom Lee, a prominent equity strategist, anticipated a 7%-10% market pullback, urging caution but also advising investors to be ready to “buy that dip.” Lee noted that September has historically been the weakest month for stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a 0.7% loss every September since 1950.

Additionally, market strategist Jay Woods discussed the potential impacts of the election year and Federal Reserve rate cuts on the stock market. In an interview, Woods mentioned that the Fed’s expected rate cut in September comes as investors try to predict market movements amid the 2024 presidential election. Woods says the Fed was late to raise rates and has been late to cut rates.

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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Kaustubh Bagalkote