Trump Vs Harris: This Candidate Skyrockets in Election Forecast, Poised To Secure Victory In Four Swing States

In the race for the 2024 Presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris is witnessing a significant boost in her election prospects.

What Happened: The Economist’s latest election forecast shows Harris with a 3 in 5 chance of securing the Electoral College in November, compared to Donald Trump‘s 2 in 5 chance.

This is the strongest position Harris has held since becoming the Democratic presidential candidate. The forecast also anticipates Harris to win 281 Electoral College votes, while Trump is expected to garner only 257.

Over the past three weeks, Harris' odds have surged by 10 percentage points, improving from an even 50-50 split with Trump as of September 8.

Also Read: Voters Warm To Kamala Harris As Election Nears

According to a report by Newsweek, her overall probability of winning the election has grown by 6 percentage points, rising from 52% to 58%. In contrast, Trump's chances have declined by 7 percentage points, dropping from 48% to 41% since the same date.

The forecast also suggests that Harris will secure victory in four swing states—Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—while Trump is predicted to win in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.

However, the margins in these swing states are so narrow that they are still considered competitive.

Despite varying polls, Harris continues to lead in every polling aggregator. For example, FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker places Harris 2.8 points ahead, with 48.6 percent to Trump’s 45.7 percent.

Race to the White House gives Harris a 60 percent chance of winning the election, with 289 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 248.

However, data analyst Nate Silver‘s polling tracker puts Harris ahead by 3 points. But his Electoral College predictions were not as favorable for the Democrat. In his newsletter, Silver stated that his model showed the Electoral College is a toss-up.

Also Read: Trump Vs Harris: New Poll Reveals Post-Debate Swing Towards This Candidate In Key State

When asked about the election forecast, Trump’s spokesperson Steven Cheung criticized Harris’ campaign. “Kamala Harris is in desperation mode; that’s why she keeps lying about her positions. She knows her policies have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime that threatens every community,” Cheung told the outlet.

Why It Matters: The forecast, derived from a combination of polling data, historical election outcomes, and socio-economic trends, suggests that Harris is outperforming initial expectations.

This is significant as it reflects a broader acceptance and approval of her policies and leadership style, factors that are crucial as she potentially gears up for a presidential campaign.

Experts attribute this rise in Harris's poll numbers to several key factors. Firstly, her visibility and active engagement in critical national issues have resonated well with the electorate.

Her advocacy for comprehensive healthcare reforms, her stance on climate change, and her vocal support for social justice initiatives have particularly stood out, aligning her closely with the priorities of a significant segment of the Democratic base.

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Trump Vs Harris: New Polls Reveal This Candidate Is Outperforming In Swing States

This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.