Polymarket To Review User Base In Light Of Whales Betting Millions On Trump Election Win

Blockchain based prediction market Polymarket is conducting a thorough review of its user base to ensure that large-scale bettors on the platform are based outside the United States, in compliance with its regulations.

What Happened: The platform, which prohibits U.S. users from trading, has experienced a significant increase in bets supporting Donald Trump's chances of winning the upcoming presidential election.

Quoting sources, Bloomberg reported that Polymarket is re-verifying details of users, particularly those making large wagers, to confirm compliance with its rules.

This comes amid heightened scrutiny of Polymarket's U.S. political markets, which has seen massive bets placed by a few high-rolling traders.

One of the most notable traders, using the username Fredi9999, has wagered over $18 million on Republican outcomes, including nearly $13 million on Trump's return to the White House.

This account is the largest bettor in Polymarket's presidential election market and is also the platform's most profitable account to date.

Blockchain analysts, including those from research firm Arkham Intelligence and sleuths from social media platforms like X (formerly known as Twitter), have suggested that Fredi9999 may be linked to three other accounts, all of which have placed significant bets on Republican victories.

Together, these accounts have spent more than $43 million on Polymarket.

Despite the substantial sums being wagered, none of these accounts are based in the U.S., as confirmed by the source.

Polymarket's market for betting on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has become its most popular offering, with more than $2.2 billion in trading volume to date.

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Recent heavy betting on Trump's victory has pushed the implied probability of his win to 64% on the platform.

Comparatively, other prediction markets show slightly lower probabilities, with PredictIt placing Trump's chances at 59% and Kalshi at 60%.

Despite this, polling data from RealClearPolitics shows Trump trailing his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, by a narrow margin, with Harris leading 49.3% to Trump's 48.5%.

While Polymarket strictly prohibits U.S. users from participating, reports suggest that some American traders have managed to circumvent these restrictions using virtual private networks (VPNs).

Social media platforms have been rife with instructions on how to bypass Polymarket's geoblocking system to access the election markets, despite the company's efforts to enforce its rules.

The platform allows traders to purchase "yes" or "no" shares tracking various outcomes, with the buying and selling of these shares determining the implied probability of each result.

Polymarket's challenges with U.S. regulators date back to early 2022 when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined the company for offering illegal trading services.

Following the settlement, Polymarket agreed to cease operations in the U.S. but continues to operate abroad.

Meanwhile, Polymarket’s competitor, Kalshi Inc., has gained ground in the U.S. election betting market. Kalshi secured a recent court victory over the CFTC, allowing it to offer election-related derivative contracts within the U.S.

What’s Next: As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, these developments in the prediction markets are expected to be a key focus at the upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

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