The head-to-head matchup between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be close according to election polls, but prediction markets and betting odds are favoring a higher likelihood of a landslide win in the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: With less than two weeks until Election Day, election polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, as past months have predicted.
As the election nears, prediction markets and sportsbooks have Trump with a better chance of winning with the latest odds showing his victory could be more decisive than the previously expected close race.
While betting on the outcome of U.S. elections is illegal at sportsbooks in the U.S., other countries offer betting options.
Odds from BetMGM UK, which is part of the BetMGM joint venture owned by MGM Resorts International MGM and Entain, offers betting on the presidential election.
The sportsbook currently lists Trump as the betting favorite to win the 2024 election at -182 and an implied chance of 58.71% to win the election. Harris is listed as the underdog with odds of +130 and an implied chance of 41.29% to win, as reported by Action Network.
In money terms, this means a $100 bet on Trump to win would pay out a profit of $54.95 if he wins, while a $100 bet on Harris to win would pay out a profit of $130 if she wins.
Bettors have other options available on the sportsbook including individual states and the number of electoral college votes for each candidate.
Here are the current betting odds for Trump's electoral college vote totals and the implied percentage chance of the outcome happening:
- 179 or fewer: +2,000, 3.37%
- 180 to 209: +1,000, 6.43%
- 240-269: +350, 15.73%
- 270-299: +225, 21.78%
- 300-329: +175, 25.73%
- 330-359: +500, 11.79%
- 360+: +2,000, 3.37%
For Harris the most likely outcome according to the betting odds is winning 210 to 239 electoral college votes with a 25.77% chance.
With Trump now the more likely favorite to win the 2024 election, bettors could wager on the former president winning a specific range of electoral college votes. Getting between 300 and 329 electoral college votes is currently the favorite at +175.
Outcomes of 270 to 299 and 330 to 359 payout better odds of +225 and +500, respectively.
Here are the current profit payouts of several outcomes for $100 bet:
- 270-299: $225
- 300 to 329: $175
- 330 to 359: $500
While each of the outcomes could be bet, a person could also bet on Trump to win with the first and third ranges and hope that Trump doesn't fall in the 300 to 329 electoral college votes range.
Did You Know?
- Congress Is Making Huge Investments. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool
Landslide Victory?: The definition of a landslide victory will vary by source. There are a total of 538 electoral college votes available and a candidate needs 270 to win the election. Some of the most dominant wins in presidential election history have been Ronald Reagan securing 489 and 525 electoral college votes in 1980 and 1984, respectively. Richard Nixon secured 520 electoral college votes in the 1972 election.
While the odds for Trump getting over 450 electoral college votes is unlikely, he could potentially secure the most electoral college votes since the 426 won by George H.W. Bush in the 1988 election.
A map on 270towin.com shows Republicans likely to win at least 219 votes and the Democrats to win at least 226 votes. This is based on the states that typically lead one way or the other historically.
What's left are the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states represent 93 votes total in the election and are likely to determine the outcome of the race.
Biden won six of the seven swing states in the 2020 election, including several flipping from Trump's win in the 2016 election.
If Trump is able to win all seven swing states, he would likely sit at a total of 312 electoral college votes, falling into the 300 to 329 window. This could be one likely betting option. If Trump does not win all seven swing states, the more likely outcome is falling into the 270 to 299 window, which pays out more to bettors.
Winning 312 and all seven swing states will still likely be considered a landslide and would be more than the 304 won by Trump in 2016 and the 306 won by Joe Biden in 2020.
To win the 360+ needed for a $2,000 profit on a $100 bet, Trump would need to win all Republican-favored states, all seven swing states and flip some typical Democrat-winning states red.
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