Zinger Key Points
- Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied in the final Emerson College 2024 election poll.
- A look at the results and the candidate winning the Independent voter demographic.
A new 2024 election poll reinforces months of research, showing a tight race expected between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on Election Day.
Here's a look at the latest.
What Happened: Tuesday's Election Day and the pending results in the following days or weeks could determine whether election polls have been correct, with a close head-to-head matchup predicted, or if the commanding victory by Trump forecasted by prediction markets and sportsbooks is more accurate.
A new Emerson College election poll predicts an incredibly tight race between the two candidates. Here are the results from the Nov. 3 poll:
- Kamala Harris: 49%
- Donald Trump: 49%
- Someone Else: 1%
- Undecided: 1%
The poll is in line with the most recent results from late October. Back in early October, Harris had a 50% to 48% lead in the Emerson College poll and a two-point lead in the September poll.
In the poll, Harris received strong backing from women, with a 12-point lead over Trump. Men supported Trump by a 12-point margin over Harris.
Among Independent voters, Harris leads 50% to 44% over Trump, which is more commanding, given the tight race expected and the approach of Election Day.
Did You Know?
- Congress Is Making Huge Investments. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool
Why It's Important: While Harris and Trump are virtually tied in the poll, the newest Emerson College poll found that 50% of voters expect Trump to win the election and 49% expect Harris to win.
This could show that headlines of Trump's lead in prediction markets and betting odds may be influencing who voters think will win the election.
Most voters have made up their minds on who they will vote for on Tuesday, but 1% still remained unsure. The poll found that 83% of voters made up their minds on a candidate over a month ago, with 81% making up their mind in the past month and 6% making up their mind in the last week.
Harris edged out Trump in favorability in the latest poll with 50%, compared to 48% for Trump.
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