Coinbase Q4 Earnings Preview: Trump Winning 2024 Election 'A Shot In The Arm For The Crypto Industry'

Cryptocurrency company Coinbase Global COIN could highlight record profitability and user metrics when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results after market close Thursday.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Coinbase to report fourth-quarter revenue of $1.83 billion, up from $953.8 million in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The revenue estimate would mark the highest quarterly total for Coinbase since the fourth quarter of 2021 if the company hits the figure. This would also mark four straight quarters of revenue of $1.2 billion or more.

Coinbase missed analysts revenue estimates in the third quarter, but has beaten estimates in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Coinbase to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.71, up from 51 cents per share in the fourth quarter. The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in seven straight quarters.

Coinbase has reported profitability in four straight quarters and a profit in the fourth quarter would make each quarter in 2024 profitable.

What Analysts Are Saying: A surge in crypto asset prices and trading volumes in the fourth quarter could help Coinbase's financials, HC Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese said in a new investor note.

The analyst reiterated a Buy rating and raised the price target from $255 to $330.

"President Donald Trump's re-election in early November proved to be a shot in the arm for the crypto industry, as the event catalyzed a massive rally in digital asset prices and trading volumes in 4Q24," Colonnese said.

The analyst said Bitcoin BTC/USD hit all-time highs in the fourth quarter along with spot trading volumes hitting records in the quarter. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of over $16 billion in the fourth quarter, the analyst added.

Coinbase is the custodian of many of the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.

Colonnese also said Ethereum ETH/USD had "strong gains" in the fourth quarter, up 28% quarter-over-quarter.

Colonnese said Coinbase is likely to be a beneficiary from the fourth quarter's record in spot volume for centralized exchanges, which surpassed previous all-time highs set back in May 2021.

"Our revised 4Q24 revenue and earnings estimates are now above consensus forecasts, as we expect Coinbase to deliver a top and bottom line beat this Thursday after the close."

He raised fourth-quarter estimates and fiscal 2025 estimates on the heels of the record quarter and new White House administration.

Colonnese's 2025 revenue estimate goes from $5.3 billion to $7.3 billion. His 2025 earnings per share estimate goes from $2.77 to $8.29.

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Coinbase and their price targets:

Needham: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $420 to $330
Mizuho: Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral, raised price target from $250 to $290
Oppenheimer: Maintained Outperform rating, lowered price target from $358 to $334
Goldman Sachs: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $397 to $340
Piper Sandler: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $245 to $285

Key Items to Watch: Among the key items to watch will be commentary on what President Donald Trump and the new White House administration means for the cryptocurrency sector and the company.

The company acknowledged the 2024 election as one of its biggest upcoming catalysts the last time it reported quarterly results. With Trump now sworn in as president, the company could provide more bullish color on what this means.

Bitcoin hit all-time highs after the election and the fourth quarter will likely see many records for Coinbase due to a surge in prices and trading volume.

Investors and analysts will also be looking for color on how January performed with more all-time highs for Bitcoin hit and Trump officially sworn in.

Another item to watch could be on the company's international expansion. Coinbase recently announced its registration as the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United Kingdom. Coinbase also recently received regulatory approval to launch in Argentina.

COIN Price Action: Coinbase stock is up 2.1% to $272.45 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $137.13 to $349.75. Coinbase stock is up 85% over the last year.

For comparison, Bitcoin is up 95% over the last year.

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