US Stocks Likely To Open Higher Amid Ukraine Peace Talk Hopes As Russian, American Officials Meet

U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday after a long weekend following a mixed close on Friday. Monday was a federal holiday owing to the Presidents Day celebrations. The futures of all four benchmark indices advanced.

Investors will be on the lookout for global macroeconomic factors as the U.S. and Russian officials met in Riyadh on Tuesday for their highest-level talks yet on the Ukraine war.

Discussions focused on ending the three-year conflict and improving relations, potentially paving the way for a summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Walmart Inc.’s WMT earnings will be a key focus this week, along with reports from U.S.-listed Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba Group Holding ADR BABA and Baidu Inc. BIDU. Online used-car retailer Carvana Co. CVNA, and EV maker Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN will also report this week.

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.50%, while the two-year yield was at 4.27%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 97.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the March meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Nasdaq 100	0.37%
S&P 500	0.29%
Dow Jones	0.10%
Russell 2000	0.15%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Tuesday. SPY rose 0.30% to $611.52, and QQQ advanced 0.42% to $540.42, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From The Last Session

Tech and Communication Services bucked the negative trend, closing higher on Friday, while Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Utilities led losses as most S&P 500 sectors declined.

Despite Friday’s mixed results, for the last week, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the Dow 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 2.6% led by weaker-than-expected retail sales which were down 0.9% in January.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	0.41%	20,026.77
S&P 500	-0.0072%	6,114.63
Dow Jones	-0.37%	44,546.08
Russell 2000	-0.097%	2,279.98

Insights From Analysts

Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Research pointed out that seven out of the total broad 11 sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 index on a year-to-date basis.

“We’ve been pounding the table for broadening out and we think this will continue,” he added.

After a big week for tech last week, all 11 sectors are up on the year and seven groups are outperforming the S&P 500.

We've been pounding the table for broadening out and we think this will continue. pic.twitter.com/F2sPwCw8wj
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 18, 2025

The S&P 500 has surged 60% in the past two years, a significant increase. However, according to Bravos Research historically, similar rapid gains have often been followed by substantial market downturns.

The downturns have occurred three out of the last four times after such a surge was witnessed. Bravos highlights that one instance did lead to a rapid and dramatic market rise, calling it a “melt-up.”

The question, now is whether the current situation will follow the more common pattern of decline or the rarer “melt-up” scenario.

S&P 500 has seen a 60% gain in just 2 years

The last 3 out of 4 times saw big market declines after

But 1 time it did end up in a true melt-up

Which one is it going to be this time around? pic.twitter.com/QywZJANK2U
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) February 16, 2025

Talking about the economic impact Ed Yardeni in his Market Call blog said, “So far, Trump’s tariff turmoil seems to be weighing more on the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and many other emerging markets than on China and most European countries.”

That could change once reciprocal tariffs are imposed by the U.S. in early April, unless Trump changes his mind, again, added Yardeni.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on this week:

On Tuesday, February’s Empire State manufacturing survey data will be released at 8:30 a.m., ET.

February’s home builder confidence index will be announced at 10:00 a.m., ET.

San Francisco Fed President Mary C Daly will speak at 10:20 a.m., while Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr will speak at 1:00 p.m., ET.

On Wednesday, January’s housing starts and building permits data will be out by 8:30 a.m., ET.

January’s minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting will be released at 2:00 p.m., ET.

Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson will speak at 5:00 p.m., ET.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims till Feb. 15 will be announced and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for Feb will be out by 8:30 a.m., ET.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will be speaking at 09:35 a.m., ET.

January’s leading economic indicators will be released at 10:00 a.m., ET.

Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr will speak again at 2:30 p.m., ET.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will be speaking at 5:00 p.m., ET.

On Friday, February’s S&P flash U.S. services PMI and manufacturing PMI will be out by 9:45 a.m., ET.

The final consumer sentiment data for February and existing home sales data for January will be out by 10:00 a.m., ET.

Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson will speak again and San Francisco Fed President Mary C Daly will also speak at 11:30 a.m., ET.

Stocks In Focus:

Medtronic PLC. MDT was up 0.75% in the premarket on Tuesday ahead of its earnings, which will be released before the opening bell. Analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $1.36 per share on revenue of $8.32 billion.

Fluor Corp. FLR advanced 1.34% as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of 77 cents per share on revenue of $4.42 billion before the opening bell.

Baidu Inc. BIDU dropped 2.28% ahead of its earnings, which will be released before the opening bell. Analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $1.78 per share on revenue of $4.56 billion.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY jumped 1.64% as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of 70 cents per share on revenue of $7.05 billion after the closing bell.

Aptose Biosciences Inc. APTO climbed 17.78% after securing two funding agreements; a $25 million committed equity facility allowing them to sell shares to an investor over two years, and a $1 million at-the-market facility for Nasdaq share sales.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. PGY zoomed 23.68% after posting record total revenue and other income of $279 million in the fourth quarter along with a record network volume of $2.6 billion.

MGO Global Inc. MGOL plunged 26.42% as shareholders approved the proposed business combination with Heidmar at a special meeting on Friday.

Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.56% to hover around $71.81 per barrel.

The gold spot index was up by 0.48% to $2,912.19 per ounce. The Dollar Index was up 0.34% at 106.932 level.

Asian markets were mixed on Tuesday. Australia's ASX 200, China's CSI 300, and India's S&P BSE Sensex index fell. Whereas, South Korea's Kospi, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Japan's Nikkei 225 index advanced. European markets were mixed in trade as well.

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