US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After Trump Hints At Looming Recession: Expert Says Can't Rule Out A Bear Market As Indices Inch Towards Correction Territory

U.S. stock futures declined on Monday after a small bout of relief on Friday as indices neared the correction zone. Futures of all four benchmark indices fell in premarket trading.

President Donald Trump, on Sunday, did not rule out the possibility of a recession this year. Acknowledging the potential of short-term turbulence from his economic agenda, he expressed confidence in future prosperity. In a Fox News interview, he said, “I hate to predict things like that” and called the changes being brought about by his administration as “very big.”

Meanwhile, China responded with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods including its largest import from the U.S. — Soybeans.

Investors will watch out for the inflation data slated to be released this week on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.24%, while the two-year yield was at 3.94%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 97% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the March meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Nasdaq 100	-1.22%
S&P 500	-1.15%
Dow Jones	-0.95%
Russell 2000	-1.04%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Monday. SPY lost 1.03% to fall at $570.00 level, and QQQ declined 1.12% to $486.26, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From The Last Session

Utilities, information technology, and energy sectors led Friday’s U.S. stock gains, pushing the Dow Jones over 200 points higher. However, consumer staples and financials declined, countering the broader market’s positive trend.

Despite Friday’s rally, all major indices recorded weekly losses: the S&P 500 fell 3.1%, its worst week since September, the Dow dropped 2.4%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.5%. Last week, Nasdaq 100 entered the correction territory on Friday, falling nearly 10% from its last high, which eased to 9.1% after Friday’s sessions, whereas the S&P 500 was 6.1% lower from its last record.

Economic data revealed a mixed picture, with February’s jobs report showing a moderate increase of 151,000 jobs, below expectations, and a surprise rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.

In company news, Genesco Inc. GCO shares plummeted over 16% on disappointing earnings, while American Public Education Inc. APEI shares surged 22% on strong results.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	0.70%	18,196.22
S&P 500	0.55%	5,770.20
Dow Jones	0.52%	42,801.72
Russell 2000	0.43%	2,075.48

Insights From Analysts

According to the Yardeni Research’s QuickTakes by Ed Yardeni and Eric Wallerstein, “Anything is possible in Trump World.”

“We can’t rule out the possibility that a bear market started on Feb. 20, the day after the S&P 500 rose to a record high. It could be like the ‘flash crashes’ that occurred during 1962 and 1987. It could happen quickly and reverse just as quickly. So the selloff could provide buying opportunities, especially in overvalued names that are now less so,” the note stated.

According to the note, Trump administration’s rapid-fire policy initiatives are stress-testing the economy, which has been remarkably resilient so far, and raising fears of a recession.

The current bull market, which began in October 2022, has entered its third year. According to Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Research, it is normal to see some fluctuations in the third year of a bull market.

Not all bull markets make it to their third year, but when they do it is perfectly normal to see some chop and frustration. pic.twitter.com/moLsIkXAhS
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 10, 2025

While the conflict around tariffs has raised the speculation of a slowdown and recession, Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates had a contrarian view. According to him, “The anxiety over tariffs may be holding back some consumers, but I want to assure you that I do not expect most tariffs to be inflationary. As an example, the tariffs that have been imposed on China are expected to be suppressed by Chinese deflation as well as a weak Chinese yuan.”

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep on this week:

No data is scheduled to be released on Monday.

On Tuesday, February’s NFIB optimism index data will be released at 6:00 a.m., ET.

January’s job openings data will be out by 10:00 a.m., ET.

On Wednesday, February’s core and headline consumer price index data will be out by 8:30 a.m., ET.

Monthly U.S. federal budget data for February will be announced at 2:00 p.m., ET.

On Thursday, the initial jobless claims data for the week ended March 8 will be released at 8:30 a.m., ET.

The core and headline producer price index data for February will also be announced at 8:30 a.m., ET.

On Friday, the preliminary consumer sentiment data for March will be released by 10:00 a.m., ET.

Stocks In Focus:

BioNTech SE ADR BNTX slipped 1.06% in premarket on Monday ahead of its earnings, which will be released before the opening bell. Analysts expect it to report earnings of 58 cents per share on revenue of $1.15 billion.

Oracle Corp. ORCL dropped 1.44% as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of $1.49 per share and revenue of $14.40 billion after the closing bell.

Mission Produce Inc. AVO was down 0.33% ahead of its earnings, which will be released after the closing bell. Analysts expect it to report earnings of 3 cents per share on revenue of $285.50 million.

Vail Resorts Inc. MTN was flat at -0.01% as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of $6.31 per share on revenue of $1.14 billion after the closing bell.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. CTSH jumped by 3.33% following a report on Friday suggesting activist investor, Mantle Ridge, built a more than $1 billion stake in the company.

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. TSM declined 1.41% despite posting a year-on-year rise in its February 2025 revenue. The sales fell on a monthly basis from January by 11.3%.

Checkpoint Therapeutics Inc. CKPT surged 66.40% after Sun Pharma acquired the company for up to $355 million, securing FDA-approved cancer drug UNLOXCYT.

Sharps Technology Inc. STSS zoomed 62.15% after providing business updates. The company raised $20 million, cleared its debt and expanded in Hungary. Also signed a five-year, $50 million syringe deal with a U.S. supplier, which is set to begin revenue generation in the second half of 2025.

Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.04% to hover around $67.02 per barrel.

The gold spot index was up by 0.28% to $2,903.10 per ounce. Its last record high was at $2,956.37 per ounce. The Dollar Index was down 0.20% at the 103.628 level.

Asian markets closed mixed on Monday as Australia's ASX 200, Japan's Nikkei 225, and South Korea's Kospi index advanced, whereas China's CSI 300, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined. European markets were lower in trade.

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