US Stocks Likely To Open On A Mixed Note: 'Nothing Good Happens Above A 5% Yield,' Says Expert

U.S. stock futures were fluctuating on Friday after a mixed close on Thursday. Futures of major benchmark indices were mixed in premarket.

The week began with the market shrugging off Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. government debt, however, it slipped later in the week as investors started assessing the impact of the new tax bill proposed by the Donald Trump administration, known as the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill.”

While the tax bill is expected to add $3.8 trillion to the U.S. debt as per Congressional Budget Office estimates, it was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday by a 215-214 margin.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.51% and the two-year bond was at 3.98%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool’s projections show markets pricing a 94.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its June meeting.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.16% to $584.05, while the QQQ advanced 0.21% to $515.09, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session:

Sectoral moves drove a mixed day for U.S. stocks Thursday, as the Nasdaq Composite rose over 50 points while most S&P 500 sectors closed lower.

Utilities, healthcare, and energy stocks saw the biggest losses. Conversely, consumer discretionary and communication services bucked the trend, finishing higher.

Economic data showed U.S. initial jobless claims falling to 227,000, beating estimates, and both S&P Global services and manufacturing PMIs climbing to 52.3 in May.

Meanwhile, Advance Auto Parts Inc. AAP shares surged 57% after strong Q1 results, and Vigil Neuroscience Inc. VIGL skyrocketed 241% on news of a Sanofi acquisition.

Insights From Analysts:

Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, highlighted in an X post that the long end of the Treasury market was being ignored after the S&P 500 recovered most of its decline below its 52-week high.

“There's an old saying that ‘nothing good ever happens after midnight,’ and we could borrow that phrase and say that nothing good happens above a 5% yield,” he said, highlighting concerns about higher yields.

He added that “It's my strong hunch that the next chapter in this market cycle will be driven by rates, as term premia return to their historical pre-QE levels.”

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“The budget discussion is fueling a lot of concern about deficits and debt levels rising over the long run,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, who noted yields moving higher after the vote.

“The current proposal is expected to add anywhere from $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the accumulated debt over the next 10 years. The market appears to be voting against this bill and would like to see more fiscal restraint.”

The bill will now advance to the Senate, where it appears likely to face additional revisions.

“Congress has set a July target for a final bill to be signed into law, which could look very different than the current version. Consequently, we do not recommend taking actions based on the bill in its current form,” said Brian Therien of Edward Jones.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on Friday:

• Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak at 9:35 a.m., new home sales data for April will be out by 10:00 a.m., and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will speak at noon ET.
• On Sunday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his commencement address at 2:40 p.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus:

• Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. BAH rose 3.09% in premarket on Friday as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $1.59 per share on revenue of $3.03 billion, before the opening bell.
• Buckle Inc. BKE was up 1.45% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings before the opening bell. It is expected to post earnings of 69 cents per share on revenue of $268.06 million.
• Frontline PLC FRO advanced 1.92% as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 23 cents per share on revenue of $264.19 million, before the opening bell.
• Autodesk Inc. ADSK rose 3.32% after it reported better-than-expected first-quarter financial results, issued strong guidance for the second quarter, and raised its FY26 guidance.
• Intuit Inc. INTU jumped 7.96% after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter financial results and raising its full-year guidance.
• BloomZ Inc. BLMZ surged 43.88% and formed a strategic alliance with M-NEXT Holdings, owner of trading card retailer “Ryusei no Arashi.”
• Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. AUPH was 2.78% higher after it announced positive findings from a post-hoc analysis of its AURORA 1 Phase 3 study in lupus nephritis (LN) patients.
• Hallador Energy Co. HNRG dropped 10.25% as a major agreement, with a prominent global data center developer, was terminated on May 19, 2025.
• Xerox Holdings Corp. XRX slumped 8.79% after slashing its quarterly dividend by 75% to fund a $238 million synergy deal with Lexmark.
• Sobr Safe Inc. SOBR zoomed 18.84% after the company reported a year-over-year increase in first-quarter EPS and sales results.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.49% to hover around $60.90 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 1.11% to hover around $3,331.29 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.57% at the 99.3890 level.

Asian markets were mixed on Friday as South Korea's Kospi and China’s CSI 300 indices declined, whereas India's S&P BSE Sensex, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices rose. European markets were also mixed in early trade.

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