Our short objectives were hit today with Crude down just over 2% hitting the 100 day MA at $80.65 as forecast. Aggressive clients were advised to liquidate their shorts and to reverse and start scaling into longs. As of this post natural gas is higher by 5.25% back above the 20 day MA and trend line. We are cautiously optimistic that higher trade is coming. Those long January should be looking to add length with upside targets of $4.35 and then potentially $4.65.
We remain on the sidelines with clients in lean hogs and live cattle but forced into the market we would be long live cattle as long as this week's lows hold. We will likely re-establish bullish plays with clients once silver confirms it is done moving lower and corn's volatility decreases. One may have nothing to do with the other but we're trying to keep allocation size down with the current volatility.
Cotton was down limit again today; clients were advised to book a tidy profit on their March puts today. If the dollar starts to roll over we will be looking at bullish plays in cocoa in the coming sessions…stay tuned.
Small progress today in the gold/silver trade mentioned in recent blogs; short (2) gold and long (3) silver. If the ascent higher begins in metals we expect silver to appreciate faster than gold. The 20 day MA continues to support silver at $25.25. The 50 day MA at $1332 is the support line in gold. After a near $1 correction in corn in the last two weeks continue to scale into longs. We're suggesting a partial long position in futures looking to add at higher levels and have been purchasing some clients outright calls and bull call spreads in March '11. The dollar appears to be topping but wait for confirmation before acting. If we turn south from here we would likely be suggesting bullish plays in the Euro…stay tuned.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
MB Wealth Corp. is not responsible and does not endorse anything outside of the content of this article authored by Matthew Bradbard; President of MB Wealth.
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