US Stocks Likely To Open In The Green To End November On A High: Are Markets Set For A Santa Claus Rally In December? Analysts Decode

Zinger Key Points
  • US futures signal a higher open for the markets.
  • December has been the worst month for markets only once in 95 years, says analyst.

U.S. stock futures advanced on Friday after a day’s break for Thanksgiving as investors look to end November on a high note. The dollar slipped below the 106 mark in the hope of more measured tariffs.

U.S. markets will close at 1 p.m. ET on Friday during the truncated week.

Futures for the three major U.S. indices gained, while the two-year and 10-year treasury yields eased on Friday. The expectations of a further 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 66%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

FuturesPerformance (+/-)
Nasdaq 1000.37%
S&P 5000.27%
Dow Jones0.32%
R2K0.81%

In premarket trading on Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was up 0.31% to $600.69 and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ rose 0.44% to $507.50, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From The Last Session

The S&P 500 index fell 22.89 points or 0.38% to end at 5,998.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 138.25 points or 0.31% to close at 44,722.06 and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 115.10 points or 0.60% to 19,060.48. The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped six basis points to 4.24%, a one-month low close

On the economic front, the U.S. core PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in October, the same pace as in the previous month, in line with market estimates. U.S. initial jobless claims came in unchanged at 213,000 for the week ending Nov. 23, compared to market estimates of 216,000.

Pending home sales rose 2% month-over-month in October compared to a revised 7.5% gain in September.

IndexPerformance (+/-)Value
Nasdaq Composite-0.60%19,060.48
S&P 500-0.38%5,998.74
Dow Jones-0.31%44,722.06
Russell 20000.08%2,426.19

Insights From Analysts

Markets have been under pressure only once in December over the last 95 years, according to the data highlighted by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.

Detrick highlighted data from 1928 to 2023 to show that while September has been the worst month for equities 13 times during this period, December was the worst only once in these 95 years. As far as 2024 is concerned, April has been the worst month so far with a 4% drop.

Also read: Wall Street’s December Surprise: What Investors Need to Know Now

On the other hand, David Cox, CMT, CFA, portfolio manager at Raymond James, in an X Post highlighted the likelihood of an upcoming to the investors, saying "If you want to sidestep a decline, watch the trend…"

The 13/34-week Exponential Moving Average signals a bullish market trend when the 13-week EMA line is above the 34-week EMA line and a bullish crossover results in a market correction. Predicting an upcoming crossover through his chart Cox said that "there will be another red circle some day." The red circle in his chart represents a bullish crossover.

According to a note by CMGWealth, the 13/34-week EMA analysis is a "simple, tactical trend indicator that has historically captured the cyclical bull and bear market trends."

Upcoming Economic Data

There are no scheduled economic events or data scheduled to be released today.

Stocks To Watch:

  • Cabaletta Bio Inc. CABA shares rose by 11.63% to $3.36 per share in premarket following an update on their Systemic Sclerosis drug trial. The company anticipates meeting the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 2025 to discuss potential registrational trial designs, as per a notice by DelveInsight Business Research.
  • Frontline Plc. FRO shares were down 2.38% to $16.78 per share following mixed third-quarter results. Revenue rose 29.9% year-over-year to $490.4 million, surpassing the $361.42 million consensus.
  • Rigetti Computing, Inc RGTI jumped 8.33% to $2.60 apiece in pre-market trading after rising by 9% on Tuesday. Shares continued an up move as the company announced a registered direct offering of 50 million shares at $2 per unit aiming to raise $100 million in gross proceeds.
  • ZenaTech Inc ZENA fell by 6.89% to $7.30 apiece. The stock was pulling back after surging on Tuesday. Last Thursday its subsidiary, ZenaDrone, signed agreements ensuring compliance with Blue Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA.)
  • Bitdeer Technologies Group BTDR shares were up 7.52% to $13.15 per share after it announced a private placement of $360 million in Convertible Senior Notes, aiming to finance data center expansion and the development of crypto mining rigs.

Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures fell in the early New York session, declining 0.60% to hover around $68.30.

The Gold spot rose 0.94% to 2,662.10 per ounce.

Asian markets were mixed as major indices in Japan, Australia, and South Korea fell, whereas Hong Kong, China, and Indian markets closed higher. European markets were also mixed in early trading.

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Photo courtesy: Wikimedia

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