U.S. stock futures were higher on Thursday, the first trading session of 2025, after sliding on New Year‘s Eve on Tuesday. All four index futures advanced in premarket trade.
The S&P 500 index fell for the fourth session on Tuesday, which was its longest losing year-end streak since 1966. Despite missing the typical year-end Santa Rally, the S&P 500 index achieved 20% plus return for the second consecutive year in 2024.
The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.53% and 4.21%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31 FOMC meeting was at 88.8%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.74% |
| S&P 500 | 0.56% |
| Dow Jones | 0.45% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.55% |
In premarket trading on Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was up 0.66% to $589.97 and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ rose 0.83% to $515.48, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From The Last Session
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite experiencing a significant decline of around 176 points during the trading session.
Despite this downturn on the final trading day of the year, major indices still demonstrated strong growth in 2024. The S&P 500 surged by a substantial 24.01%, building upon its impressive 24.2% gain in 2023. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a notable 12.80% jump last year, while the Nasdaq Composite significantly outperformed with a remarkable 30.78% rally.
Nvidia Corp. NVDA experienced a phenomenal year, with its stock price skyrocketing 178.78% and reaching new all-time highs in 2024. U.S. stock markets were closed on Wednesday in observance of New Year’s Day.
On the economic data front, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index showed a year-over-year increase of 4.2% in October, slightly moderating from the 4.6% growth in September. This figure aligned closely with market expectations of a 4.1% rise.
The FHFA house price index registered a modest 0.4% increase in October, marginally below market estimates of a 0.5% rise. The Dallas Fed general business activity index for Texas’ service sector declined to 9.6 in December, indicating a slight slowdown from the 9.8 reading in November.
Sector performance on the S&P 500 was mixed. Energy, materials, and real estate sectors led the gains. Consumer discretionary and information technology stocks bucked the overall positive trend, closing the session with losses.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.90% | 19,310.79 |
| S&P 500 | -0.43% | 5,881.63 |
| Dow Jones | -0.07% | 42,544.22 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.11% | 2,230.16 |
Insights From Analysts
The S&P 500 index created records in 2024 but failed to rally over the last four days of 2024. However, historical data shows that the index delivers positive returns over the next few days when it falls for at least three days during the year-end.
With 57 all-time highs and over 20% year-to-date returns for two consecutive years, the S&P 500 achieved several milestones last year. It also rose 53.2% in two years, recording the biggest two-year jump since 1997-1998.
The S&P 500 index witnessed its longest losing year-end streak of four days, the most since 1966 which saw five days of fall. However, the first month of 1967 saw 7.82% returns following the decline.
According to an X post by Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Research, and the consecutive data shared by SubuTrade, the index has had a 6.24% average return over the next month after closing lower on the last three days of the year.
The U.S. stock market has experienced explosive growth, with its valuation skyrocketing to a record-breaking $63.8 trillion. This unprecedented surge represents a doubling of market capitalization in just 4.5 years, showcasing a remarkable upward trajectory.
In 2024 alone, the market added a staggering $10 trillion, according to The Kobeissi Letter. To put this into perspective, the combined market capitalization of China, Hong Kong, and Europe is roughly half that of the U.S. Furthermore, the “magnificent seven” tech giants boast a market cap exceeding the entire European market, emphasizing their dominant role in global stock markets.
Standout performers in 2024 included Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and Gold, while Oil and U.S. bonds delivered largely flat returns.
See Also: How To Trade Futures
Upcoming Economic Data
A few important data points will be released in this truncated week that will help investors determine the future course of action.
- On Thursday, initial jobless claims till Dec. 28 will be announced at 8:30 a.m., ET.
- Construction spending data for November will be released at 10:00 a.m., ET.
- On Friday, ISM manufacturing data for December will be announced at 10:00 a.m., ET.
Stocks In Focus:
- Tesla Inc. TSLA was up 1.32% as Elon Musk clarified that the car explosion outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas was unrelated to the Cybertruck itself.
- SoFi Technologies Inc. SOFI was down 2.40% after it was downgraded to ‘underperform’ by Keefe, Bruyette, and Woods expressing concerns about its lofty valuation, deeming its long-term earnings potential insufficient to justify the current stock price.
- Sealsq Corp. LAES was up 18.7% in premarket after the announcement that it expects to end the year with a strong balance sheet and a cash position which is projected to be in excess of $85 million by Jan. 3, 2025.
- Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. FFIE was up 16.46% after the company disclosed on Sunday that entrepreneur Luke Hans will receive the first ‘FF 91’ 2.0 Futurist Alliance EV of 2025 during a January delivery ceremony with company executives.
- MicroCloud Hologram Inc. HOLO was up 19.70% after its recent achievements in the field of quantum technology helped it develop a solution that allows the use of a "fast adiabatic driving protocol to achieve coherent control of two heavy hole spin qubits in a double quantum dot (QD) system."
- Quantum-Si Inc. QSI was up 6.67% after its director Jonathan M. Rothberg sold 3,506,267 shares for $11,710,931.
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were higher in the early New York session by 1.41% to hover around $72.73 per barrel.
The gold spot index was up by 0.50% to $2,654.31 per ounce. The Dollar Index was up 0.12% to 108.612 level.
Asian markets were mostly lower on Thursday as Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s Kospi, China’s CSI 300, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined. Whereas, Australia’s ASX 200 index ended higher. European markets were mixed.
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