US Stocks Likely To Open Lower As Volatility Persists Before Bank Earnings: 'Fed Is Likely To Cut Rates Again On June 18th,' Says Expert

U.S. stock futures were volatile on Friday after losing steam on Thursday. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower in premarket.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed the annual inflation rate falling to a six-month low of 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the expected 2.6%.

Monthly, the Consumer Price Index contracted by 0.1%, a decrease from the previous month’s 0.2% increase and below the anticipated 0.1% rise, marking the lowest monthly reading since May 2020.

Investors will keep an eye on the headline and core producer price index data for March and April’s consumer sentiment data, slated to be released later today. Major banks will kick off the earnings season as they report earnings before the market opens on Friday.

The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.40% and the two-year bond was at 3.80%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 61.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its May meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Dow Jones	-0.49%
S&P 500	-0.34%
Nasdaq 100	-0.33%
Russell 2000	-0.32%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were lower in premarket on Friday. The SPY was down 0.52% to $521.85, while the QQQ declined 0.58% to $443.60, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session:

Energy, information technology, and communication services sectors led Thursday’s U.S. stock market decline, overshadowing a rise in consumer staples.

The broader market saw the Dow Jones briefly plunge over 1,000 points as investors considered economic risks despite a newly announced 90-day tariff pause.

Apple Inc. AAPL was down 4%, Nvidia Corp. NVDA declined 6%, and Tesla Inc. TSLA slipped 7% as these were the significant individual stock decliners.

On the economic front, the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.4% in March, below expectations, with monthly inflation turning negative for the first time since May 2020.

After Thursday’s fall, the Nasdaq 100 index was 17.46% lower than its previous high of 22,222.61 points. The S&P 500 index was down 14.31% from its record of 6,147.43 points, and the Dow Jones declined 12.16% from its 52-week high of 45,073.63 points.

The Dow Jones index dropped 1,015 points or 2.50% to 39,593.66, whereas the S&P 500 index declined 3.46% to 5,268.05. Nasdaq Composite tumbled to end 4.31% lower at 16,387.31, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, slipped 4.27% to 1,831.39.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	-4.31%	16,387.31
S&P 500	-3.46%	5,268.05
Dow Jones	-2.50%	39,593.66
Russell 2000	-4.27%	1,831.39

Insights From Analysts:

As the U.S. Core consumer price inflation excluding food and energy moved down to 2.81%, the lowest level since March 2021. And the overall U.S. CPI moved down to 2.39% in March, the lowest level since February 2021.

“Fed is likely to cut rates again on June 18th,” said Charlie Bilello from Creative Planning in an X post.

Overall US CPI moved down to 2.39% in March, the lowest level since February 2021.

US Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) moved down to 2.81%, the lowest level since March 2021.

Based on this data the Fed is likely to cut rates again on June 18th (25 bps cut down to 4.00-4.25%). pic.twitter.com/2qI8nO4nDz
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 10, 2025

He added that this data “should be enough for the Fed to resume cutting rates in June.”

US Core CPI Inflation is back below 3% for the first time in 4 years. This should be enough for the Fed to resume cutting rats in June.https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ pic.twitter.com/pvOHrTLqaL
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 10, 2025

As tech stocks experienced significant volatility following President Donald Trump‘s tariff announcements, Alexander Morris, CEO of F/m Investments, viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity for select Magnificent 7 companies.

"We have long been investors in the Mag 7 — not all of them, but a handful of them — and you'll see us more into some Apple, which seems to be at a discount," Morris told Reuters. "We picked up some Meta, which seemed to have done well."

Morris recommends investors maintain a disciplined portfolio allocation, like a 60-40 mix, through market volatility, noting the repeated resurgence of such strategies.

He advises choosing an allocation and sticking with it through market cycles until life events necessitate a change, emphasizing its self-balancing nature. Morris also cautions against market timing, as significant returns often occur within a few key days throughout the year.

“The concern going forward is that prices will rise and the economy will slow,” said Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “This will put the Fed in a difficult place.”

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on Friday:

The headline and core producer price index data for March will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.

April’s preliminary consumer sentiment data will be announced, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks at 10:00 a.m. ET.

New York Fed President John Williams will speak at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus:

Morgan Stanley MS was up 0.019% in premarket on Friday as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $2.20 per share on revenue of $16.57 billion.

Wells Fargo & Co. WFC was 1.13% lower as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of $1.24 per share on revenue of $20.75 billion before the opening bell.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM rose 0.7% as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $4.61 per share on revenue of $44.11 billion.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. BK dropped 1.16% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of $1.51 per share on revenue of $4.77 billion before the opening bell.

BlackRock Inc. BLK was 0.14% higher as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $11.19 per share on revenue of $5.53 billion.

Fastenal Co. FAST was 0.32% lower as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of 52 cents per share on revenue of $1.95 billion before the opening bell.

Stellantis NV STLA declined 1.68% after reporting estimated consolidated shipments for the three months ending March 31 at 1.2 million units, representing a 9% year-on-year decline.

MSP Recovery Inc. MSPR surged 171.88% after securing massive $1.2 billion debt relief via strategic partnerships and creation of an independent servicer.

Calamos Global Dynamic Income Fund CHW jumped 43.10% after strategically choosing Pretoria’s LightDeepEarth as its preferred assay lab to boost assay result turnaround for its Heavy Mineral Sands program and improve operational efficiency.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.15% to hover around $60.22 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar advanced 1.30% to hover around $3,216.91 per ounce. Its fresh record high stood at $3,227.23 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 1.69% at the 99.163 level.

Asian markets were mixed on Friday as India's S&P BSE Sensex, China’s CSI 300, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced. Whereas, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, and South Korea's Kospi index declined. European markets were mostly lower in early trade.

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